National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDSHV Received: 2018-10-12 02:45 UTC

FXUS64 KSHV 120245

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
945 PM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018


No changes will be made to the ongoing forecast package.


.AVIATION... For the 11/00Z terminal forecast will prevail VFR 
for all sites across the ArkLaTex. Middle and high clouds will be 
spreading over the sites overnight and lowering during the early 
to mid morning Friday between 5-8 kft. Showers will spread in from
the West and could affect KTYR, KELD and KTXK near the end of the
forecast period. Surface winds will be light and variable to 
light Northeast less than 6 knots overnight and East to Southeast 
5-10 knots. /06/


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 344 PM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018/ 

Coolest airmass of the season overhead with sunny skies a good
night of radiation cooling as northerly breeze decouples
overnight. However, mid lvl clouds in central TX have begun to
cross I-35 and will move into ne TX and se OK, keeping temps
closer to 60 degrees across those areas overnight. Likewise, these
clouds may dampen heating on Friday across western sections of
area with these clouds movg into eastern portions of area later in
the day. Rain chances to begin increasing Friday across Red River
Valley region bordering OK/TX although rainfall amounts will 
remain lgt thru this period of the fcst. /07/

LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday Morning/

At the beginning of the forecast period, the remnants of Tropical 
Storm Sergio will begin to meet up with return flow off of the Gulf 
of Mexico somewhere over West and Central Texas. As the surface low 
approaches the ArkLaTex, rain chances will begin to increase by the 
afternoon timeframe, especially for East Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, 
and Southwest Arkansas. From Saturday into Sunday, the surface low 
will track across the I-30 corridor and allow for some heavy showers 
and isolated thunderstorms. Instability during the entire forecast 
period will be limited, thus only mentioning thunder for the 
weekend, and that may be generous.  

Another round of precipitation will develop on the surface front as 
it pushes through the four-state region on Sunday. Afterwards by 
Monday morning, still more showers will develop along and north of I-
30 as southwesterly flow aloft will allow for overrunning of the 850-
700 mb frontal boundary. This setup will remain in place through 
much of Wednesday until surface high pressure builds in from the 
north. Overall rain totals will average from 1 to 3 inches from 
south to north, with the higher amounts along and north of I-30. 
Some localized higher amounts and some isolated flash flooding could 
be possible, especially along and north of I-30.

With the cold frontal passage late Sunday into Monday, some much 
cooler air will be in store for our region. High temperatures area-
wide will be some 20 to 25 degrees below normal while low 
temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal for the remainder 
of the period. /35/


SHV  55  71  58  75 /   0  20  20  30 
MLU  52  72  57  77 /   0  10  10  10 
DEQ  51  64  55  65 /   0  40  30  70 
TXK  51  67  56  67 /   0  30  30  60 
ELD  50  70  55  70 /   0  20  20  30 
TYR  56  70  59  74 /   0  20  30  50 
GGG  55  70  58  75 /   0  20  20  40 
LFK  57  77  61  80 /   0  10  20  20