National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDSHV Received: 2018-08-14 21:26 UTC


348 
FXUS64 KSHV 142126
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
426 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday Night/

Upper level low continues to lift northeastward across eastern KS
into western MO with trailing convection southward to along the 
middle Red River Valley of northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma and
southwest Arkansas. These areas will continue to see scattered
showers and a few embedded thunderstorms through the evening and
overnight hours as large scale ascent continues along the trough
axis with ejecting upper level low. Another shortwave trough on
the back side of the upper low is also noted across south central
KS and western OK, and this feature will shift farther southeast 
overnight with additional convection possibly reaching our far 
northern zones after midnight through early Wednesday morning. 

Scattered convection will remain possible through the day on 
Wednesday with this shortwave feature traversing the northern 
third of our region. Elsewhere, expect hot and humid conditions 
with high temperatures returning back to the mid 90s for highs on 
Wednesday afternoon. Overnight temperatures will begin to increase
with lows in the mid to possibly upper 70s on Wednesday night as 
warm, moist southerly flow from the Gulf prevails. 

/19/

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday/

Closed upper level low pressure system over the central sections of 
the country tonight will continue lifting to the Northeast toward 
the Great Lakes Region as an open wave. The trailing trough axis 
will keep rain chances for the more Northern parts of the forecast 
area on Wednesday and the Eastern areas through Thursday. Another 
disturbance aloft in the Northwest flow be approaching the Four 
State Region Thursday night and by Friday providing scattered to 
numerous showers and thunderstorms. Additional weak disturbances
will linger the rain chances for the area into the weekend with the 
Northeast periphery having the higher rain chances. In the first 
half of next week a significant upper trough will be moving into 
the upper ridge out west carving out a deeply amplified trough 
sending a cold front into the area by mid week with another round of 
significant rainfall and cooler temperatures. Daytime high 
temperatures will be warming well into the 90s in the rain free 
regions with upper 80s to lower 90s in rain areas and thicker cloud 
covered regions. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 133 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018/ 

AVIATION...

For the 14/18Z TAF period, VFR conditions observed this afternoon
as cu field lifts to around 4Kft to begin this period. Convection
remains north of all TAF sites, and do not expect any development
farther south through the period as upper level low continues to
lift northeast farther away from our region. Cu will diminish by
sunset, and cirrus will slowly increase from the west overnight.
Some patchy MVFR cigs/vsbys are likely to develop toward daybreak
and possibly affect east Texas sites, but conditions will improve
after 15/15Z. Breezy S/SW winds this afternoon will lesser during
the overnight hours and then increase again by 15Z near 8-12 kts 
with higher gusts possible across our western terminal locations.
Sidenote: Sahara dust may slightly reduce daytime vsbys with HZ.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  76  97 /   0  10  10  20 
MLU  74  97  75  97 /   0  10  10  30 
DEQ  72  91  74  93 /  20  30  30  30 
TXK  74  93  76  94 /  20  20  20  20 
ELD  74  95  76  95 /  10  10  20  30 
TYR  75  94  77  96 /  10  10  10  10 
GGG  75  95  76  96 /  10  10  10  10 
LFK  74  95  75  96 /   0  10  10  10 

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

19/06