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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDPUB Received: 2022-04-06 16:55 UTC
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029 FXUS65 KPUB 061655 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1055 AM MDT Wed Apr 6 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 1043 AM MDT Wed Apr 6 2022 Blowing Dust Satellite products are showing blowing dust occurring over the far eastern plains, so a blowing dust advisory has been issued until late afternoon for the far eastern counties. \/Hodanish && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 330 AM MDT Wed Apr 6 2022 Key messages: 1) Windy again today with Critical Fire Weather conditions expected across much of south central and southeast Colorado. Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis continues to indicate strong northwest flow aloft across the region, as a strong 120 kt jet core digs down the backside of a long wave trough and upper low across the Rockies and Upper Midwest. At the surface, regional radars, satellite and observations at 3 am are indicating a secondary cold front pushing south across eastern El Paso County through Kiowa County, with MSAS data indicating 3 hrly pressure rises of 2-3 mb across northeastern Colorado attm. No big changes in the current forecast for today, as flow aloft remains progged to become more northerly but remains strong with the jet continuing to dig down the back side of the Upper Midwest low pressure system. With increasing gradient flow and expected mixing, will see north to northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts of 40 to 60 mph across south central and southeast Colorado again today, with the strongest winds across the far southeast plains where a High Wind Warning is in effect from 9 AM to 7 PM. The strong winds may also produce areas of blowing dust across the eastern plains this afternoon, as well as areas of blowing snow across the higher terrain, mainly over and near the higher elevations of the Sawatch Range. Temperatures aloft cool with the digging system leading to cooler temperatures today and highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s across the lower elevations, and mainly in the 20s and 30s across the higher terrain. Latest model data and current observations indicate much drier air moving into the region within the northerly flow aloft, with dew pts already in the single digits across northern and eastern portions of Colorado this morning. With that said and in spite of the cooler temperatures, Critical Fire Weather conditions are expected to be met across the San Luis Valley and the southeast Plains where Red Flag Warnings will start at 9 AM and continue through 9 PM. The strong winds look to decouple through the late evening hours, and with the dry airmass in place, overnight lows will be on the chilly side, mainly in the 20s across the plains and in the single digits through the teens across the higher terrain. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 330 AM MDT Wed Apr 6 2022 Key Messages: 1) Critical fire weather conditions expected on Thursday. 2) High Wind Watch issued from late morning on Thursday lasting through early evening for the eastern plains along the Kansas border. 3) Potential for fire weather conditions on Saturday through Tuesday over portions of plains and for the San Luis Valley. 4) Closed low will develop over the Great Basin Monday and Tuesday bringing potential for rain over the lower elevations and snow over the higher elevations. Thursday: Strong winds and critical fire weather conditions are expected for Thursday, late morning through evening. A cut-off upper level low will remain in place over the midwest and its associated jet streak will orient itself from north-northwest to south-southeast over plains. A dry continental-arctic airmass, though relatively warm, will bring very dry air across the region. Strong winds will coincide with the dry air which will lead to critical fire weather conditions, therefore a Red Flag Warning has been issued from 11am - 8pm on Thursday for the San Luis Valley and all of the plains. The strongest winds are expected to be near the Kansas border and from 11am through 7pm wind gusts around 50kts are possible, therefore a High Wind Watch has been issued during the aforementioned time period. Blowing dust was also included in the weather grids, primarily near the Kansas border. Friday and Saturday: A similar pattern to Thursday is expected, however the upper level jet will be weaker and further to the east and and amplified ridge will develop over the western portion of the state. Low dew points are once again expected, but winds will be weaker. At this time, the forecast winds will be too weak for critical fire weather conditions over the majority of the state, however near the Kansas border some near 20kt winds are expected, so near critical fire weather conditions will exist. Another upper level system will make its way from the Pacific Northwest towards Colorado. Downslope winds off of the Rockies will create another potential critical fire weather day over the San Luis Valley and the I-25 corridor. There is some divergence amongst ensemble guidance, which would effect how strong the winds are at the surface. The EPS has weaker wave located further north than the GEFS, which would result in weaker winds over the aforementioned area. The GEFS has a stronger wave that is further south, which would result in stronger wind at the surface. So overall, expect near critical fire weather conditions over the San Luis Valley and I- 25 corridor, with an upside of being critical. Sunday through Tuesday: A weak wave will push a cold front over the region on Sunday, which may bring scattered snow showers to the mountains and isolated rain showers over the lower elevations. Near critical fire weather conditions are possible over the San Luis Valley and the I-25 corridor. The I-25 corridor's fire weather conditions will be dependent on how fast the cold front moves over the plains. There is ensemble agreement that a closed low will develop over the Great Basin region beginning Monday and Tuesday (and beyond), though there is plenty of disagreement of the intensity and the exact location. Honestly, it is hard to say which one is correct. The general idea of impacts will be near critical fire weather conditions over the San Luis Valley and portions of the plains. A cold front may bring more widespread rainfall over the plains. The front will determine where near critical fire weather conditions are and where the precipitation chances are. Again, hard to give fine details at this point. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 330 AM MDT Wed Apr 6 2022 VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours at COS, PUB and ALS. Gusty north winds will prevail across all of south central and southeast Colorado today with winds increasing through the morning to between 30-45 kts at COS and PUB which will then continue through afternoon. North to northwest winds gusting to 35 kts remain expected at ALS into the afternoon. Winds will gradually decrease through late afternoon and evening for all three terminals.&& .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ224-226>237. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for COZ224- 226>237. High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ095>099. High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for COZ095>099. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ224-226>237. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for COZ224- 226>237. High Wind Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ095>099. High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for COZ095>099. Blowing Dust Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ096-098- 099. && $$ UPDATE...HODANISH SHORT TERM...MW LONG TERM...SKELLY AVIATION...MW