National Weather Service Raw Text Product

415 
FXUS61 KPHI 200224
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
924 PM EST TUE JAN 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A BLUSTERY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY
WILL STRENGTHEN AND TRACK TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS FRIDAY EVENING.
IT TURNS NORTHEAST AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR WINTER STORM
SATURDAY, FINALLY PASSING SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD SUNDAY MORNING. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
NOT MANY BIG ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM. WIND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT. THE SKY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLR OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THE
LTST SAT IMAGERY HAD SOME CLOUDS MOVG INTO THE FAR NW. MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS.  LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY
IN THE TEENS AND WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WED AND INTO WED
NIGHT. CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA
WED...MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS...SO A GOOD DEAL OF SUN IS EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL BE LESS NOTICEABLE THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...MOSTLY AROUND 10-12
MPH THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW/MID
30S ACROSS THE REGION. WE FAVORED A MAV/PERSISTENCE BLEND FOR THE
HIGH TEMPS WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
**MAJOR WINTER STORM FRIDAY AFTERNOON-SATURDAY EVENING**

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS LONG TERM SECTION FROM THE 1156 AM 
ISSUANCE.  

MODEL GUIDANCE AND FORECASTER INTERPRETATION SUGGEST THAT THOSE WITH
LONG DISTANCE TRAVEL PLANS FROM NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE WEST THROUGH
PENNSYLVANIA, THE VIRGINIAS AND MARYLAND MAY WANT TO COMPLETE TRAVEL
BY NOON FRIDAY. ITS NOT WORTH THE RISK FOR WAITING SINCE THE INITIAL
FRONT END FRONTOGENETIC THUMP OF THIS STORM MAY BE SUBSTANTIAL FRIDAY
EVENING (1"/HOUR SNOW FALL RATE).

HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
REACHING MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF AREA LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
 
THE FIRST SNOW MAP FOR THIS STORM HAS POSTED, ONLY COVERING
SNOWFALL THROUGH 7 PM FRIDAY. SNOWFALL MAPS POSTING WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY THE 330 PM WEDNESDAY POST, WILL OFFER A MORE COMPLETE
EXPECTATION OF SNOWFALL FOR THIS STORM THROUGH 7 PM SATURDAY-
THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL BEYOND 7 PM SATURDAY.

THE NEW BRIEFING PACKAGE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD POST BY 430
PM. 

EVERYTHING IN THIS LONG TERM PACKAGE IS STATED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.

THAT IS SAID, EVEN THOUGH THE SHORT WAVES MODELED TO DEVELOP THIS
MAJOR STORM, ARE ONLY NOW A CROSSING THE WEST COAST WHERE THERE IS
MORE SAMPLING BY MULTIPLE NORTH AMERICAN PLATFORMS.

500 MB: A 110M 500MB 12 HR HFC-SHORT WAVE WILL BE CROSSING NJ 
AROUND MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER, GEFS/ECEFS BOTH HAVE
HAD A GOOD HANDLE AND AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OVER MID AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTS SATURDAY MORNING,
WITH VARYING RATES OF DECAY AND PROGRESSIVENESS TO THE EAST NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. A NEW BUT POSITIVE TILT TROUGH STARTS EVOLVING IN
THE SOUTH CENTRAL USA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 12Z/19 GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT, THEREAFTER THE 12Z/19
GFS MEX MOS FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN FOR SATURDAY-TUESDAY THE
18Z/19 SUPERBLEND WHICH INCLUDES 12Z/19 GFS MEX GUIDANCE AND WPC
GUIDANCE. ALSO BLENDED IN THE 2M ECMWF OPERATIONAL 12Z/19 RUN.  

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES SHOULD BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY-FRIDAY AND NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY, POSSIBLY WARMING A BIT TUESDAY.
 
THE DAILIES...

ALL INFORMATION BELOW IS STATED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-EARLY THURSDAY...CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF SCATTERED
SNOW OR FLURRIES FROM SIGNIFICANT MIDWEST SHORT WAVE CROSSING NJ
AROUND 06Z/21. SPOTTY 1/4 INCH AMOUNTS? SNOWMAP NOT POSTED FOR
THIS, IN LIEU OF AN INCREASINGLY CONFIDENT OUTBREAK OF SNOW INTO
THE DELMARVA DURING THE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WIND.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY AND QUIET. LIGHT WIND. IT MIGHT
RUN A LITTLE COLDER THAN WE ARE FORECASTING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IF
ITS REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR MOST OF THE NIGHT-VARIABLY THIN CIRRUS
EXPECTED, AND ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY SNOW COVER REMAINS OVER THE
COUNTRYSIDE.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...A MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR MUCH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA, THAT COULD BE PARTICULARLY VICIOUS ALONG THE NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS WHERE I BELIEVE HIGH POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OF AROUND 50 KT.

DETERMINISTIC DETAILS ARE IN THE 330 PM FORECAST BUT COULD VARY
DURING THE STORM, IN PART DUE TO MESOSCALE INFLUENCES WITHIN THE
CONTEXT OF THIS MODELED BIG STORM.

WE'VE DISCUSSED THE 12Z/19 SE OF ENSEMBLE MEAN 12Z ECMWF AND UKMET.
WE NOTED WITHIN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES THAT AT LEAST 7 OR 8 MEMBERS
HAD THE LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OF ENSEMBLE CLUSTERED MEAN. THAT
SUGGESTS TO US THAT THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF WILL BE A RELATIVE OUTLIER
TO THE VERY ROBUST NEWD MOVING GEFS.

THEREFORE, WE STAY ON COURSE, ONLY BEING A LITTLE MORE CAREFUL
ABOUT WHAT MAY OR MAY NOT HAPPEN N OF I-78. 

TIMING, AXIS AND AMOUNTS OF HEAVIEST PCPN, THE PERSISTENT LOCATION
OF THE RAIN SNOW LINE, AS WELL AS STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ALONG THE
COASTS STILL REMAIN WITH A VARIETY OF POSSIBILITIES.

HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR FOR MOST OF OUR AREA, PREDOMINANTLY
SNOW FROM NEAR I-95 NORTHWESTWARD (POSSIBLY A LITTLE WIND DRIVEN
SLEET THERE SATURDAY MORNING). SOUTHEAST OF I-95...ESPECIALLY COASTAL
SLIVER, SNOW MAY QUICKLY CHANGE TO RAIN DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER 40S SST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTS. THAT MEANS A MARGINAL
THERMAL PROFILE FOR SNOW WOULD TURN THIS TO RAIN THERE, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE PERIODS OF LIGHTER PRECIPITATION AND ESPECIALLY S NJ
SOUTHWARD. ONCE THE WIND TURNS NORTH, SNOW WILL COLLAPSE EASTWARD
TO THE COASTS, PROBABLY DURING SATURDAY MIDDAY OR AFTERNOON BUT
STILL WITH UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN AND THEN HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL
AFTER THAT OCCURS. TO US, THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW AFTER ANY
RAIN ALONG THE COAST IS QUITE HIGH. 

RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS ALONG THE NJ AND DE COASTS ARE GOING
TO BE AN ADDED TRAVEL HAZARD.

THE 700MB BENT BACK WARM FRONT FAVORS CONSIDERABLE LIFT OVER
NJ/DELMARVA, EVEN INTO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DEFORMATION ZONE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL WILL PROBABLY BE WEST OF
I-95 THOUGH THAT COULD CHANGE IN FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS OF THE
EXPECTED STORM STRUCTURE.
 
WE DONT WANT TO PLACE TOO MUCH CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNTS AND SNOW RAIN
LINES AT THIS TIME BUT WE THINK THE HIGH (>90 PCT) CONFIDENCE WPC
PROBABILITY FOR FROZEN QPF GREATER THAN 1/4 INCH IS A VERY GOOD
STARTING POINT AND ITS CONSISTENTLY EXPANDED AND INCREASED FROM 24-
48 HOURS AGO. THAT MEANS THE SNOW/RAIN LINE PROBABLY MIGRATING
NORTHWARD FROM THE DELMARVA SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY
MORNING, POSSIBLY EVEN FURTHER NORTH THAN I-95, BEFORE EVENTUALLY
COLLAPSING BACK TO THE COASTS.

NORTHEAST TO NORTH WIND GUSTS 25 TO 40 MPH...STRONGEST ALONG THE
NJ AND DE COASTS WHERE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR GUSTS OF 50 TO
60 MPH FOR A TIME SATURDAY MORNING. PLEASE NOTE THAT WHERE THE
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 40S, MORE EFFICIENT TRANSFER
IS OCCURRING TODAY. THE SAME COULD HAPPEN ALONG THE NEAREST
SEVERAL MILES OF THE COASTS SATURDAY MORNING WITH POTENTIAL FOR
NEAR 60 MPH GUSTS.

DRIFTING AND BLOWING SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IMPACT WILL DEPEND ON
AMOUNTS.
 
CYCLICAL GEFS EVALUATION CONTINUES -6 850 MB ENE INFLOW SATURDAY
MORNING WITH 250 WINDS -2SD AS THE FLOW 700 MB-200MB FLOW WEAKENS
WITHIN THE MODELED DEVELOPING UPPER LOW. A LARGE 200M 12 HR HFC
DEVELOPS NEAR THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z SATURDAY THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD.
OUR REVIEW OF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE GREATEST INFLOW
DELMARVA AND SNJ WHICH IS WHERE 2+ QPF SHOULD FOCUS. 

BY THE WAY, THIS CAVEAT, IF THE CLOSED LOW DOES NOT DEVELOP AT
500MB, A WEAKER FURTHER SOUTH SYSTEM WOULD RESULT. THAT CAVEAT IS
STATED AS STILL A POSSIBILITY SINCE GREATER NORTH AMERICAN
SOUNDINGSAMPLING MAY RESULT IN SOME ADJUSTMENT OF STORM TRACK
AND STRENGTH.


SUNDAY...CLEARING AND NOT QUITE AS COLD DURING THE DAY SINCE THE
PRIMARY COLD AIR SOURCE SHOULD BE EXHAUSTED BY THE VAST CIRCULATION
OF THIS UPCOMING STORM. DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY NIGHT...IF ITS CLEAR,  THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE AT NIGHT (NEAR ZERO NW EDGE OF THE FA AS
SUGGESTED BY THE GFS 2M TEMPS).

MONDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL USA.

TUESDAY...CHANCE OF MIXED PCPN AT NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT?

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE TAF PD. NW TO W WIND WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES, BUT SLOWLY DIMINISH THRU LATE TONIGHT.

ON WED, A GENL W WIND AROUND 10 KT.  

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY
EVENING COULD LOWER CONDITIONS TO MVFR ALONG AND WEST OF I-95.
LIGHT WIND TRENDING NORTHWEST BY DAWN THURSDAY WITH GUSTS 15 KT
DEVELOPING.

THURSDAY...VFR. NW WIND GUSTY 15 TO 20 KT DURING THE DAY BECOMING
LIGHT AT NIGHT. 

FRIDAY...CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO LOWER TO IFR OR LIFR WITH SNOW BY
LATE IN THE DAY OR EVENING FROM PHILLY SOUTH. THE SNOW MAY NOT
START AT KRDG AND KABE UNTIL 04Z/23-TIMING UNCERTAIN. SNOW LIKELY
CHANGING TO RAIN KMIV-KACY LATE AT NIGHT AND MIXING WITH SLEET AT
KILG LATE. LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND DURING THE DAY BECOMING GUSTY 25
TO 35 KT LATE AT NIGHT EXCEPT 40KT VCNTY KACY. POTENTIAL FOR
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND PLOWING OPERATIONS PROBABLE,
ESPECIALLY KPHL- KPNE-KTTN- KABE- KRDG. LLWS POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE
AFTER 06Z/23.

SATURDAY...GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW, BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW WITH POSSIBLY A CHANGE TO MVFR CONDS RAIN OR SLEET AT LEAST UP
THE PHILADELPHIA AREA. WHERE IT DOES CHANGE TO SLEET OR RAIN, IT
IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TO PERIODS OF SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. 
NORTHEAST WIND BECOMING NORTH GUSTING 25-35 KT... POSSIBLY 40-50
KT FOR A TIME ALONG THE NJ COAST. LLWS. PLOWING OPERATIONS WILL
PROBABLY FORCE AIRPORT CLOSURES AT TIMES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR AS SNOW ENDS AND WINDS
DIMINISH. 

SUNDAY...PROBABLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE EXTENDED THE GLW ON UPR DEL BAY UNTIL 4 AM, AS THERE IS STILL
SOME STRONG WIND AROUND, HOWEVER, THEY SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ALL THE GALE WARNING SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE
REPLACED BY SCA ON WEDNESDAY MRNG.

OUTLOOK... 

THE FORECAST INFORMATION BELOW IS STATED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THOUGH WITH THE INFLUX OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE,
WE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF 25 KT GUSTS THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS.

FRIDAY...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT DURING THE DAY. 
THEN AN APPROACHING COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS AT NIGHT, WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS OF 35 TO 45KT
LIKELY THEN. SEAS BUILDING TO AT LEAST 15 FT OFF THE DELAWARE AND
SNJ COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT 
THINKING THAT IT COULD BE CONSERVATIVELY STATED UNLESS THE MODELS
TREND MUCH WEAKER IN FUTURE DAYS.

SATURDAY...STORM FORCE GUSTS OF 55 TO 65 KT PROBABLE WITH NNE FLOW
DURING THE MORNING THEN DIMINISHING A BIT TO 40-45 KT LATE IN THE
DAY AND TRENDING NORTH OR NNW. SEAS AROUND 20 FT LIKELY, POSSIBLY
25 FT VCNTY 44009. THE FORECAST WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECASTER
INTERPRETATION OF MOMENTUM TRANSFER DRILLING HIGHER THAN MODELED
SEAS. THE WATER TEMPS ARE STILL 5 TO 7F WARMER THAN NORMAL, PERMITTING
EASIER AND SEEMINGLY MORE EFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER WIND TRANSFER.

MY CONFIDENCE ON A STORM FORCE EVENT FOR THE NJ COAST IS ABOVE
AVERAGE...THOUGH NOT A GUARANTEE. THE MWW HAS THAT INFORMATION.

SATURDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST GALES AND SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISHING.

SUNDAY...CONTINUING SUBSIDENCE OF WIND AND WAVE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE STRONG W TO NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION HAS PRODUCED LOWER
WATER LEVELS (COMPARED TO NORMAL TIDES). LEVELS ARE IN GENERAL
RUNNING 1 TO 2 FT BELOW PREDICTED LEVELS. HAVE INCLUDED UPR DEL
BAY IN A NEW LOW WATER ADVY AND HAVE ISSUED A NEW SPS FOR THE
TIDAL PORTION OF THE DEL RIVER FOR THE NEXT TIDAL CYCLE, WHICH
OCCURS ANYWHERE FROM THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY MORNING...HIGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING. WE ONLY NEED A 1.5 FOOT STORM
SURGE NEAR THE TIME OF SATURDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE NJ AND
DE ATLANTIC COASTS... 10Z-13Z. AT THIS TIME, WE CAN SEE ANYWHERE
FROM A 2 TO 5 FOOT SURGE AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AND OCEAN WAVES
OF 12-15 FEET BASHING THE SHORE. THAT WOULD MEAN AN EXTENSIVE SATURDAY
MORNING COASTAL FLOOD EVENT WITH AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS OF ROAD
CLOSURES EXPECTED. DAMAGE MAY OCCUR IN SOME AREAS AS WELL AS POTENTIALLY
SEVERE BEACH EROSION THOUGH NOT OF SANDYESQUE PROPORTIONS IN MONMOUTH
AND OCEAN COUNTIES. FOR ATLANTIC COUNTY SOUTHWARD THROUGH CAPE MAY
COUNTY IN SUSSEX COUNTY DELAWARE, WE MAY RUN JUST A COUPLE OF
INCHES SHY OF SANDY TIDE LEVELS. THE DE BAY BAY IMPACT FOR
MODERATE OR MAJOR IS ESPECIALLY HIGHER ON THE DELAWARE SIDE OF THE
BAY DUE TO POUNDING NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW.

PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION MAY ADD TO THE FLOODING.

ITS JUST TOO SOON TO BE SOLIDLY DETERMINISTIC REGARDING HIGH END
SEVERITY. THE COASTAL FLOOD THREAT IN PART WILL BE DETERMINED BY
THE WIND DIRECTION AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. IF ITS NORTHERLY, IT
REDUCES THE POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING. IF ITS NORTHEAST
AND GUSTING TO NEAR 50 KT ALONG THE NEAREST COUPLE OF MILES OF NJ
AND DELAWARE COASTS, THEN WE'VE GOT A BIG PROBLEM ON OUR HANDS.

ESTOFS DATA FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS OF FORECAST CYCLES...CONTINUES
TO OFFER A 3-4 FT STORM SURGE TO RARITAN BAY AND NOW ALL ALONG
THE NJ COAST FOR THE SUNRISE HIGH TIDE CYCLE... 3 FT ON THE DE
COAST OF DELAWARE BAY FOR THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE THERE.

WE'RE NOT YET SAYING THIS WILL HAPPEN...BUT WE NEED TO MONITOR THAT
POTENTIAL ALONG BOTH THE NJ AND DE COASTS. THERE IS A LONG WAYS
TO GO BEFORE THIS EVENT OCCURS WITH THE USUAL AMOUNT OF ADVANCE
UNCERTAINTY.

PLANING SHOULD NOW BE TAKING PLACE TO MINIMIZE THE ADVERSE IMPACT OF
WHAT "MAY" BE A TOP 5 COASTAL FLOOD EVENT IN OUR RECORD KEEPING, 
DATING BACK THROUGH AT LEAST THE 1940S.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PERSPECTIVE...WHAT IT TAKES FOR HISTORIC AROUND HERE.

TWO DAY TOP TEN SNOWFALLS AND ENDING DATE: 

ALLENTOWN 
#1  25.6 1/8/1996  
#10 17.8 2/10/2010

ATLANTIC CITY
#1  20.0 2/17/2003
#10 16.3 1/26/1987

PHILADELPHIA
#1  30.7 1/8/1996
#10 19.4 4/4/1915

WILMINGTON DE
#1  25.8 2/6/2010
#10 18.0 1/24/1935

RECORD DAILY WATER EQUIV AND SNOW 

    1/22                  1/23
ACY 1.03-1954  5.0-1954   2.09-1998 1.2-1948
PHL 1.03-1987 10.8-2005   2.32-1998 11.9-1935
ILG 2.60-1902 12.0-1987   2.51-1998 3.9-1982
ABE 1.06-1987 11.1-1987   1.39-1983 7.7-1966

TTN 1.20-1987             2.30-1998
GED 1.52-1954             1.22-2006
RDG 1.11-1891             1.18-1966
MPO 1.68-1958             2.10-1987

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR 
     ANZ430-431-454-455.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/O'HARA
SHORT TERM...O'HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG/O'HARA
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG/O'HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...