272 
FXUS61 KPHI 020848
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
348 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control through the weekend, then 
shift offshore by Sunday night. A weak coastal system will slide
by offshore on Monday, then a cold front will pass through late
Monday. High pressure will build to our south on Tuesday. Low 
pressure and another cold front will pass through the region 
Wednesday night. High pressure will return for Thursday and 
Thursday night. A stronger frontal system looks to impact the 
area by late Friday into early Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
WV imagery this evening show a mid level low pressure system 
centered over the central CONUS diving towards the southeast. As
the low digs to the south, shortwave energy transfers from the 
parent low to a developing offshore low pressure system off the 
Carolina coast. While this occurs, high pressure over the region
today should lead to pleasant sensible weather this afternoon. 

Light southerly flow will develop during the day today however 
there really isn't much in the way of temperature advection so 
highs today will be very similar to yesterday in the low 60s 
across the region. The southerly winds should make a difference 
overnight however in terms of reducing the threat of frost 
overnight. With the light winds, expect slightly less efficient 
radiation cooling and temps to only drop into the low 40s 
overnight.

For Monday, expect the low pressure system that developed off 
the coast of the Carolinas to lift towards the north and that 
will bring some light rain across the coastal plain. Soundings 
show some modest instability but not enough to promote chances 
for any thunderstorms. Rainfall totals range from a trace to 
perhaps a tenth of an inch on the high side. Expect modestly 
cloudy skies across the rest of the region with highs again 
fairly seasonable in the low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Overall, seasonably cool and benign weather is expected during 
the Monday night through Tuesday night period. A trough axis 
will be moving out to sea by Monday night with quasi zonal flow 
remaining in place through Tuesday night in its wake. At the 
surface, high pressure will build to our southwest then slide 
offshore by Tuesday night. Westerly winds and mostly clear/sunny
skies. Lows will be in the low to mid 40s Monday night. Highs 
Tuesday will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Tuesday night will 
be a bit colder in the mid 30s to low 40s, which could bring a 
threat of frost development for portions of southern NJ and 
Delmarva, where the growing season continues.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A continuation of seasonable weather is expected through the 
end of the week, though a pattern change looks to be on the 
horizon into the weekend. The pattern is fairly progressive, 
with a few quick hitting, weak systems. The quasi zonal flow 
will remain aloft, with a shortwave trough passing through 
Wednesday night into early Thursday, then the pattern change 
begins Friday and into the weekend as troughing digs into the 
central CONUS.

Wednesday will feature weak warm advection ahead of a cold 
frontal passage late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The 
daytime will be dry, but the FROPA will bring a 20-40% chance of
rain to the area. Wednesday should be the warmest of the week, 
with highs in the low to mid 60s in many areas with a SSW 
breeze. The best chance of rain will be near and north of the 
Philly metro Wednesday evening, but any rainfall will be meager 
and likely less than 0.10". Thursday will be post frontal and 
somewhat breezy, but highs should still reach the mid 50s to low
60s.

Thursday night will be quite chilly again, with lows in the 30s
to low 40s. This will yield a threat of frost development again
for Delmarva, and perhaps even the first freeze of the season 
for southern NJ.

Temperatures should rebound some for Friday as winds shift 
southerly ahead of the next frontal system Friday night and into
the weekend. Details on this system remain unclear at the 
moment. There is a chance of rain Friday night, then the 
forecast becomes very uncertain into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, 
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 12z...VFR. Winds varying from west-northwest to 
southwest around 5 knots, becoming light and variable to calm. 
High confidence.

Today...VFR. Light and variable early in the morning, then 
becoming southwesterly around 5 knots through the afternoon. 
High confidence.

Tonight...VFR with building cloud cover for ILG/MIV/ACY. Light 
and variable winds. High Confidence.

Monday...VFR predominantly. A chance for some rain and perhaps 
briefly lower conditions KACY/KMIV.

Outlook...

Monday night through Wednesday...No significant weather. Wind 
gusts near 20 kts possible at times.

Wednesday night through Thursday...Wind gusts near 20-25 kts. A
chance of rain could cause brief MVFR restrictions Wednesday 
night.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines expected through Monday. Winds generally 
west to southwest 5-15 kts. Significant wave heights range 
generally around 2 feet through Monday.

Outlook...

Monday night through Wednesday...Some marginal SCA conditions 
possible at times in this period with wind gusts near 20-25 kts
and seas near 3-5 feet. Fair weather.

Wednesday night through Thursday...SCA conditions likely. A 
chance of rain Wednesday night.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NJZ012-013-
     017>020-022-027.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Staarmann
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...Staarmann
LONG TERM...Staarmann
AVIATION...Deal/Staarmann
MARINE...Deal/Staarmann