National Weather Service Raw Text Product

842 
FXUS64 KOUN 050915
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
315 AM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 305 AM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

Moist southerly flow will continue ahead of dryline early today. 
Will leave mention of patchy drizzle in forecast near and east of 
I35, and chances for light showers across far southeast Oklahoma. 
Dryline expected to begin mixing east quickly toward and after 
sunrise as Kansas surface cyclone intensifies.  Dryline expected to 
enter western Oklahoma and western north Texas by 9 AM and mix 
quickly east through the day. Somewhat surprisingly, there is still 
a fair amount of disagreement among models (at least through the 03Z 
suite) on how strong winds will be and how low dewpoints will fall 
behind the dryline. While this will be a somewhat classic early 
spring dryline passage (minus deep convection) it appears that winds 
will not be all that extreme. Still, we expect at least a 2 to 3 
hour period late this morning through mid-afternoon for wind gusts 
in excess of 40 mph. A majority of the models, namely the wrf 
suites, keep winds atop the mixing layer in the 30KT to 40KT range 
for most of the region, while the GFS and HRRR in closer 40-45KT. On 
the extreme side of things, some HRRR runs have 50+KT atop the 
mixing layer across far north-central Oklahoma. Our forecast will be 
close to the GFS solutions, generally the 90th percentile of NBM, 
which will yield an expansion of the wind advisory for the core of 
strongest winds. This will spread the wind advisory southward into 
central and portions of southwest Oklahoma. Toward and after 3 PM, 
when mixing becomes maximized behind the dryline, main core of 
strong winds will be weakening over Oklahoma and shifting east of 
dryline mixed layer. This is expected to keep chances for any kind 
of high wind warning wind gusts out of our forecast area.

Daytime highs will continue to be well above average with mid 70s to 
lower 80s possible west of the dryline. Cold front will enter 
northern Oklahoma late this afternoon, and initially spread 
steadily southward through the evening, before slowing down and 
stalling across western north Texas and southeast Oklahoma tonight
as attendant surface low progresses quickly to the northeast into
the Great Lakes region. Most if not all frontal and post frontal 
precipitation should hold off until well after sunrise Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 305 AM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

As the next in a series of upper level shortwave troughs progresses 
through the the western U.S. longwave trough, convergence and lift 
over the stalled frontal boundary is expected to yield widespread 
rain by late Sunday morning and continue through the day and evening 
hours. While a majority of the precipitation will be confined to the 
eastern half of Oklahoma, some light precipitation still appears 
possible across far western portions of Oklahoma where temperatures 
will be hovering near and below freezing Sunday morning. This will 
allow us to keep the possibility for a light wintry mix across west 
central into northwest Oklahoma at onset, but temperatures should 
recover above freezing toward afternoon. Farther east, thunderstorm 
activity will be the main story with chances for severe storms 
primarily confined to southeast Oklahoma south of and near frontal 
boundary. Marginally severe size hail and damaging wind gusts will 
be the main concerns. Enough elevated instability combined with 
strong shear could yield some hail threat farther north into central 
Oklahoma late Sunday afternoon into the evening.

Shortwave trough will pass over the region Sunday night and Monday, 
with much cooler/colder but dry weather in its wake. Yet another 
trough is progd to approach Tuesday night and Wednesday, with 
moisture availability very much in question, thus PoPs will be left 
out for now. Some recovery in temperatures is expected in the wake 
of these two upper systems, ahead of a quite cold airmass that will 
arrive Thursday. Canadian and ECM latest runs are faster with this 
strong cold front despite having a fair amount of difference in 
mid and upper level pattern amplitude. Forecast has trended less 
warm on Thursday, and if the faster frontal timing continues in 
models, fairly significant changes in Thursday high temperatures 
can be expected. In addition, amplitude and timing of post frontal
trough will influence potential for postfrontal snow, which 
continues to be forecast for Thursday across northern Oklahoma. 
The GFS is currently the most aggressive, with higher amplitude 
and more coincident with frontal timing, with ECM much slower with
less forcing well behind frontal boundary. What all models do 
agree with is that we will see very cold temperatures to end the 
work week with moderation over the weekend still expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1049 PM CST Fri Mar 4 2022

Gusty south winds will continue overnight and even with this
strong low level winds will create LLWS at all sites. Expect to
see MVFR ceilings develop later tonight before dissipating as
dryline moves through the area. Some drizzle possible later
tonight but chances remain too low to mention. Winds will shift to
the southwest to the west of the dryline with gusts of 30kt to
40kts and clearing skies. Cold front will enter northwest Oklahoma
toward the end of the forecast and will move through WWR/PNC/SWO
before end of forecast period. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 305 AM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

Red Flag warning will be expanded a few counties farther east 
with this forecast package owing to an anticipated faster 
progression and lower dewpoint environment behind the dryline. 
Fire weather conditions will quickly increase from west to east 
this morning and especially this afternoon. Temperature forecasts 
were not changed significantly from previous forecast packages, 
but we did go a little drier given upstream observations and 
significant drying noted on the lower layer water vapor imagery as
ejecting mid-level jet spreads northeastward from southern New 
Mexico. As far as winds go, not a whole lot of change from 
previous forecasts given diversity in model solutions. With mid  
level jet and lower level cyclogenesis shifting north of the 
region this afternoon, current wind forecasts are closer to the 
mean of a majority of the guidance and not reflective of the
models that forecast the strongest wind potential. Given very 
high ERC values across a majority of the Red Flag warning (neat
and in excess of the 90th percentile), combined with wind gusts
near to above 40 mph and humidity forecasts near 10 percent, 
critical to extreme fire weather conditions should be anticipated 
for a majority of Oklahoma into portions of western north Texas.
The strongest winds today are anticipated to be across northern 
into central portions of Oklahoma.

Northerly wind shift with cold front is still expected to move 
into northern Oklahoma in the 22Z to 00Z time frame and spread 
steadily southward through the evening. This front is forecast to
stall from just south of Wichita Falls, east northeast to just
south of Ada late tonight and Sunday morning. Scattered to 
numerous showers with some thunderstorms are expected to develop 
by Sunday afternoon and last through the evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  79   40  54  31 /   0   0  90  30 
Hobart OK         78  37  54  28 /   0   0  70  10 
Wichita Falls TX  83  47  66  35 /   0   0  80  20 
Gage OK           75  28  52  22 /   0   0  40  10 
Ponca City OK     80  34  56  27 /  10   0  80  30 
Durant OK         76  58  76  40 /  10   0  80  80 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CST this 
     evening for OKZ004>030-033>040-044-045.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening 
     for OKZ004>025-027-034-035-038.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CST this 
     evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...30