National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDOUN Received: 2019-03-15 17:45 UTC

FXUS64 KOUN 151745

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1245 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019

See aviation.


All of our terminals are expected to remain under VFR conditions
through the entire forecast period. Gusty north surface winds 
will go light and variable after 00Z as high pressure settles in, 
with a southwesterly wind shift at 5 to 10 mph after 12Z.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1015 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019/ 

Sunny with highs in the 50s today. Gusty winds, due to mixing, 
are expected to continue into at least early afternoon before wind
speeds begin to slow later this afternoon from west to east as sfc
high moves across the southern Plains. The gusty winds are not 
expected to be as strong as the last couple of days. Overall,
going forecast looks good so no major changes were made.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 631 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019/ 

15/12Z TAFs. VFR conditions expected through the forecast period.
Northwest winds will increase this morning into early afternoon as
mixing occurs, especially from KPNC down to KOKC/KOUN. Winds
expected to become light and veer to northeast/east late this  
afternoon into the evening hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 407 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019/ 

While we will likely see some gusty northerly winds for the first
half of today as mixing occurs, they are still expected to be much
weaker than yesterday. Temperatures expected to be near or 
slightly cooler compared to yesterday for southern Oklahoma and 
western north Texas, with slightly warmer temps over northern half
of Oklahoma where more sunshine expected. Generally light wind 
expected this evening through the weekend as lower level ridge and
much weaker flow aloft resides over the region. Appears a weak 
frontal boundary will threaten to move into Oklahoma on Sunday as 
strong jet stream progresses through upstream side of eastern U.S.
trough. WRF is the most aggressive with this frontal boundary, 
with the ECM close behind. This would result in slightly cooler 
temperatures across far northern Oklahoma on Sunday, which we will
show in forecast. This front will likely progress farther south 
over much of the region on Monday, cooling temps at least into the
50s across northern and central Oklahoma. Southerly flow expected
to increase Monday night and Tuesday to allow for a rebound in 

Split flow regime with weakening southwest U.S. upper low still
progd for the weekend into early next week as low approaches 
confluent flow over southern Plains. Associated with this feature,
we will increase cloud cover Saturday into Sunday, especially 
over western north Texas and southern Oklahoma as mid/high level 
clouds spread eastward. Models differ on track/strength of 
shortwave trough progressing through upstream side of eastern 
longwave trough midweek, along with latitude and strength of 
initial southern stream trough moving in from Pacific. These 
features will influence development of central U.S. omega block 
pattern by Wednesday. ECM/GEM stronger with this scenario, 
resulting in a slower eastward progression of southern stream 
upper low late in the week into next weekend. Confidence somewhat
low on timing of this upper low given the pattern, but enough
confidence in blocking pattern to delay onset of any rain chances
until Friday, and keeping most pops fairly low until late


Oklahoma City OK  54  30  61  35 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobart OK         55  29  60  33 /   0   0   0   0 
Wichita Falls TX  57  31  60  36 /   0   0   0   0 
Gage OK           52  28  61  31 /   0   0   0   0 
Ponca City OK     52  28  61  33 /   0   0   0   0 
Durant OK         56  32  60  37 /   0   0   0   0