National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDOUN Received: 2019-02-12 11:34 UTC


121 
FXUS64 KOUN 121134 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
534 AM CST Tue Feb 12 2019

.AVIATION...
12/12Z TAFs. Outside of a very brief period of MVFR cigs at KPNC
initially, VFR forecast expected. Northwest winds will be gusty, 
15 to 25 KT this morning, with backing and weakening through the 
day. Return to southwest winds and higher gusts late in the 
forecast across far western Oklahoma.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 233 AM CST Tue Feb 12 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
Forecast challenges for this package will be the cold front Thursday 
and chances for winter weather early next week.

Slightly cooler weather on Tuesday as a result of the front that 
just passed through. This will be followed by a quick warm up 
Wednesday and Thursday. Trended a bit toward MOS guidance due to the 
southerly to southwesterly flow for high temperatures and winds. 
This will also result in elevated fire weather conditions across 
much of the area on Wednesday.

Thursday's highs are a bit trickier as they will depend on the 
timing of glancing front. For now, set up the gradient around I-40. 

Another shortwave and front will pass through Friday, reinforcing 
the cold air. The latest GFS wants to have a tighter pressure 
gradient with the front, producing some light precipitation. 
However, right now it is an outlier and so will be set aside.

The ECMWF has come into better alignment with the GFS for the timing 
of two more substantial waves early next week. Precipitation with 
the first wave will mostly be confined to the northeast. The second 
wave digs deeper bringer more widespread precipitation Monday and 
Tuesday. Temperatures will be cold enough to support some snow, 
however, details will have to be nailed down later.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  49  33  62  46 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobart OK         53  32  64  46 /   0   0   0   0 
Wichita Falls TX  55  34  66  49 /   0   0   0   0 
Gage OK           53  30  67  42 /   0   0   0   0 
Ponca City OK     48  30  62  44 /   0   0   0   0 
Durant OK         54  33  63  46 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

11/14