National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDOUN Received: 2019-02-12 05:43 UTC


449 
FXUS64 KOUN 120543 AAB
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1143 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019

.AVIATION...
12/06Z TAFs. IFR/MVFR conditions will continue across central and
northern Oklahoma terminals for first few hours of forecast before
rapid clearing is expected with VFR then prevailing. Gusty 
northerly winds also forecast to decrease fairly quickly 
overnight, before picking back up with mixing a few hours after 
sunrise.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 509 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF discussion.

AVIATION...
Continue to see some MVFR and even IFR conditions central into
northern Oklahoma for a period this evening with mainly VFR
elsewhere. There will also be a short period of thunder at a few 
sites (central & north) early in the forecast. 

A strong cold front will sweep through the area this evening with
strong gusty north winds developing behind the front. At the same
time, ceilings will rise and dissipate with VFR conditions across
west by 06Z and then into central corridor by 12Z. Winds will 
diminish by late in the forecast period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 307 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
Convection is increasing in the Texas panhandle and these
showers/storms will spread into Oklahoma. Additional development
will be possible near and ahead of the front as it moves through.
Some hail will be possible with the strongest storms given
relatively low freezing levels. This area of precipitation will
move out overnight.

Temperatures will warm mid-week with elevated to near-critical
fire weather conditions possible out west Wednesday and Thursday
afternoons. Another cold front will move through Thursday night
bringing colder weather for Friday and the weekend.

The GFS complicates the late week scenario with the new
operational run bringing a closer upper low across northern
Oklahoma. But this is an outlier both among the medium-range
models and the other GFS ensemble members, only one of which
brings that scenario. So, will not by in on this scenario at this
time. But did add some low POPs north given that and some hints 
at QPF development north even with the ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  33  54  34  63 /  70   0   0   0 
Hobart OK         30  56  33  65 /  30   0   0   0 
Wichita Falls TX  34  57  35  67 /  20   0   0   0 
Gage OK           25  57  30  68 /  30   0   0   0 
Ponca City OK     29  52  30  63 /  70   0   0   0 
Durant OK         38  57  34  65 /  40   0   0   0 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

11/14/30