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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDOUN Received: 2019-02-11 23:09 UTC
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132 FXUS64 KOUN 112309 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 509 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019 .DISCUSSION... 00Z TAF discussion. && .AVIATION... Continue to see some MVFR and even IFR conditions central into northern Oklahoma for a period this evening with mainly VFR elsewhere. There will also be a short period of thunder at a few sites (central & north) early in the forecast. A strong cold front will sweep through the area this evening with strong gusty north winds developing behind the front. At the same time, ceilings will rise and dissipate with VFR conditions across west by 06Z and then into central corridor by 12Z. Winds will diminish by late in the forecast period. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 307 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019/ DISCUSSION... Convection is increasing in the Texas panhandle and these showers/storms will spread into Oklahoma. Additional development will be possible near and ahead of the front as it moves through. Some hail will be possible with the strongest storms given relatively low freezing levels. This area of precipitation will move out overnight. Temperatures will warm mid-week with elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions possible out west Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Another cold front will move through Thursday night bringing colder weather for Friday and the weekend. The GFS complicates the late week scenario with the new operational run bringing a closer upper low across northern Oklahoma. But this is an outlier both among the medium-range models and the other GFS ensemble members, only one of which brings that scenario. So, will not by in on this scenario at this time. But did add some low POPs north given that and some hints at QPF development north even with the ECMWF. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 30 54 34 63 / 60 0 0 0 Hobart OK 28 56 33 65 / 30 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 34 57 35 67 / 20 0 0 0 Gage OK 23 57 30 68 / 20 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 27 52 30 63 / 70 0 0 0 Durant OK 37 57 34 65 / 40 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 30/12/30