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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDOUN Received: 2019-02-11 23:09 UTC

FXUS64 KOUN 112309

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
509 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019

00Z TAF discussion.


Continue to see some MVFR and even IFR conditions central into
northern Oklahoma for a period this evening with mainly VFR
elsewhere. There will also be a short period of thunder at a few 
sites (central & north) early in the forecast. 

A strong cold front will sweep through the area this evening with
strong gusty north winds developing behind the front. At the same
time, ceilings will rise and dissipate with VFR conditions across
west by 06Z and then into central corridor by 12Z. Winds will 
diminish by late in the forecast period.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 307 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019/ 

Convection is increasing in the Texas panhandle and these
showers/storms will spread into Oklahoma. Additional development
will be possible near and ahead of the front as it moves through.
Some hail will be possible with the strongest storms given
relatively low freezing levels. This area of precipitation will
move out overnight.

Temperatures will warm mid-week with elevated to near-critical
fire weather conditions possible out west Wednesday and Thursday
afternoons. Another cold front will move through Thursday night
bringing colder weather for Friday and the weekend.

The GFS complicates the late week scenario with the new
operational run bringing a closer upper low across northern
Oklahoma. But this is an outlier both among the medium-range
models and the other GFS ensemble members, only one of which
brings that scenario. So, will not by in on this scenario at this
time. But did add some low POPs north given that and some hints 
at QPF development north even with the ECMWF.


Oklahoma City OK  30  54  34  63 /  60   0   0   0 
Hobart OK         28  56  33  65 /  30   0   0   0 
Wichita Falls TX  34  57  35  67 /  20   0   0   0 
Gage OK           23  57  30  68 /  20   0   0   0 
Ponca City OK     27  52  30  63 /  70   0   0   0 
Durant OK         37  57  34  65 /  40   0   0   0