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619 
FXUS63 KOAX 221729
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1129 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2022

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1129 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2022

The clouds are pushing southeast of the area, but we are still
seeing quite a bit of blowing snow on our GOES16 RGB Day Snow-Fog
curve. And in open areas, visibilities are still being reduced to
1 to 3 miles, based on surface observations and DOT plow cams. And
visibility could be down to 1/2 mile in portions of northeast NE
at times. The winter weather advisory will remain in place today 
for the blowing snow, but no additional falling snow is expected. 
And, it's still dangerously cold, with wind chills still running 
35 to 45 below zero. And these dangerously cold wind chills will 
continue unfortunately through early Saturday. We did send a 
Public Information Statement on the lowest wind chill reported, 
and that appears to have be 50 below at Albion, NE. These wind 
chills at Omaha are approximately the 3rd lowest reports for the 
month of December, with values dating back to 1948, with the two 
higher values in 1983 and 1989, which were near 50 below. Good
news, the cold blast won't last though, and 8-14 day climate outlooks
are suggesting nearly the entire country has high chances for 
above normal temperatures. 

Regarding snowfall amounts, we received reports from 1 to 3
inches, and a map was sent out on social media with that 
information earlier this morning. 

UPDATE Issued at 537 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2022

Updated forecast to transition Winter Storm Warning to a Winter 
Weather Advisory. Visibilities have greatly improved at most 
areas. Don't doubt there will be patches of reduced visibilities 
in open areas, but certainly not worthy of a Winter Storm Warning 
headline.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2022

Key Messages:

 - Dangerously cold wind chills continue today with values as low
   as 35 to 45 below zero through Saturday. Frostbite can occur on
   any exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

 - Snow will move out of southern counties this morning.

 - Despite low snowfall amounts, blowing and drifting remains
   possible due to strong northwest winds gusty to 35 to 45 mph.
   Visibilities will likely be reduced in open areas.

.Today:

Snow continues to fall across southeastern Nebraska and southwest 
Iowa early this morning where visibilities have dropped to a 1/4 mile 
for an hour or so at some locations in snow and blowing snow. 
Visibilities are variable across the region with some areas in 
northeast Nebraska, where the snow has ended, reporting around 3/4 
mile while others are greater than 6 miles. Intentions are to keep 
headlines as is (Winter Wx Advisory in the north, Winter Storm 
Warning in the south, and Wind Chill Warning entire area) and after 
daylight, we can decide if conditions have improved enough to 
downgrade the warning. Think the advisory area will hold for the 
most part, but don't doubt there are some significantly reduced 
visibilities in open areas. 

The snow band across southeast Nebraska/southwest Iowa will continue 
to move east/southeast out of the forecast area by 8 am. 
Continued gusty northwest winds up to 35 to 45 mph will create 
areas of blowing and drifting across the region today. Expect 
overall visibilities to improve, but open areas may still see some
significant restrictions. In addition, with the extreme cold, 
wind chill values of -25 to -45 will continue. 

.Tonight into Friday:

Gusty northwest winds will continue through this period with wind 
chill values remaining in the -25 to -40 range with highs on Friday 
in the single digits above and below zero. 

.Saturday through Sunday:

Winds will diminish as a 1043 mb arctic ridge of high pressure moves 
overhead. Although we will see relief in wind chills as winds
diminish, highs on Saturday will only remain in the single digits
in our north to the mid teens in our south. Weak upper ridging 
does build in from the west bringing warming to the area from west
to east into Sunday. Highs by Christmas Day should range in the 
upper teens in our western Iowa counties to the mid to upper 20s 
across eastern Nebraska. 

.Sunday night and Monday:

Upper ridging is short-lived with another clipper system dropping 
southeast out of the Canadian prairies Sunday night. This could 
provide a brief chance of light precipitation to portions of the 
area late Sunday night into Monday morning. 

.Tuesday and Wednesday:

Westerly flow aloft will bring in warmer air where highs across
the area increase into the 30s on Tuesday and possibly 40s by 
Wednesday and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2022

The main concern through the entire TAF period will be strong
northwesterly winds at 21 to 37 knots. While the measurable snow
has ended, there will be a continued threat of blowing snow, which
is helping to contribute to MVFR ceilings, which may be more snow
than actual cloud cover. But daytime sunshine may be helping to 
contribute to the ceiling as well. For outdoor operations at the
airports, it will remain bitterly cold with wind chill values 30
to 45 below zero.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Saturday for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for NEZ011-
     012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Saturday for IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for IAZ043-
     055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DeWald
DISCUSSION...Kern
AVIATION...DeWald