530 
FXUS62 KMHX 152031
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
331 PM EST Fri Nov 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A very strong and complex coastal low will impact the area through
this weekend. A mainly dry cold front will push through Tuesday
with high pressure building into the area Wednesday and 
Thursday. Another cold front with limited moisture will push 
through late in the week. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

As of 330 PM Fri...Light rain continues to fall across eastern 
North Carolina with more significant rain over the coastal 
waters. Expect precipitation to increase into the evening and 
overnight hours as the surface low continues to deepen off of 
the coast. Back to the southwest, the upper level low that will 
eventually support the surface low is also spinning up over the 
Deep South, but the clear feed off moisture remains off of the 
southwest Atlantic. Expect conditions to continue to deteriorate
as the upper low catches up to the surface low and provides 
upper level support for development. Highest winds at this hour 
remain along the Outer Banks where 20-25 mph sustained with 
gusts up to 30 mph are being observed. Temperatures are about at
afternoon highs ranging from the upper 40s inland to about 60 
degrees in the Outer Banks. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Friday...Confidence continues to increase regarding 
the coastal storm that is expected to bring significant impacts
to eastern North Carolina this weekend. as the surface low 
continues to deepen offshore, a cutoff upper level low will move
across the Deep South and eventually become the driving force 
behind the surface low. The two will phase on Saturday, 
expanding the wind field as it does so. As a result, even though
the low will remain offshore for the entirety of the event, 
impacts are expected to spread inland in the form of significant
coastal flooding, high winds and significant rainfall. See the 
coastal flooding section below for details. As the gradient 
winds spread across eastern NC expect sustained winds to 
increase to 20-30 kts inland and 30-40 kts over the coastal 
areas with gusts as high as 60-70 kts possible. As a result will
carry a high wind warning through the period for coastal areas 
with a wind advisory further inland. Power outages will be 
possible throughout the event, particularly due to the 
combination of high winds and wet soils. Rainfall, which is 
already ongoing is expected to continue through the weekend with
a widespread 2-4 inches inland, 4-6 inches over mainland 
coastal areas and as high as 8-10 inches over the Outer Banks 
and in higher bands forming as the system strengthens. While 
rainfall amounts will be significant have opted to hold off on a
flash flood watch for now due to the long duration of the 
rainfall, but flash flooding is still possible, mainly late in 
the event on Sunday. Check the marine and coastal flooding 
sections below for more details related to those aspects of the 
storm.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM Friday...Conditions will improve significantly on 
Monday as the low pressure system over the Atlantic moves 
northeastward off of the New England coast. A deep upper trough 
over the eastern half of the CONUS will still be in place giving
us cool temperatures with daytime highs in the mid to upper 50s
and overnight lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s inland and the low
to mid 50s along the coast. Drier conditions will prevail as 
the trough pushes offshore and surface high pressure takes over 
with weak ridging aloft through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /through 12Z Saturday/...
As of 120 PM Friday...Solid IFR/LIFR conditions across the area
should remain in place through much of the TAF period. Ceilings
will be the primary driver of conditions with visibilities 
generally a category higher. Expect rain to continue with 
periods of moderate to heavy rain expected. Winds will pick up 
through the afternoon at 10-15 kts sustained out of the north or
northeast with gusts picking up to 25-30 kts late this 
afternoon through the end of the TAF period.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/... 
As of 430 AM Fri...Poor flying conditions expected through the 
weekend as low pressure will be sitting off the coast leading to
widespread rain, gusty winds, and low clouds. Low- level wind 
shear will also be a concern, especially Saturday afternoon 
through Sunday night. Return to VFR by Monday as the low moves 
northeast away from the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Today through Sunday/... 
As of 330 PM Friday...seas will begin to increase today with 
dangerous conditions developing over the weekend. Storm force 
winds are expected across most of the waters. As a result a 
storm warning has been issued for all of the waters with the 
exception of the Pamlico river which will see gale force 
conditions. 

Seas will top out on Saturday night through Sunday with 15-20 foot 
seas with slightly higher values possible across the northern 
waters. 

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/... 
As of 325 PM Friday...High seas will continue into early next 
week before beginning to subside on Tuesday with lower values 
expected for the middle and end of next week. 

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 330 PM Friday...High confidence in a strong coastal storm
is expected to cause significant impacts across eastern North 
Carolina this weekend and into early next week. High winds out 
of the north and northeast over a long duration will lead to 
significant coastal flooding. While ocean overwash will be the 
primary threat, soundside flooding will still be possible across
Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands, Downeast Carteret County and up 
into the Lower Neuse River. Impacts include potential flooding 
of homes and businesses in close proximity to the waterfront. 

In some areas on the oceanfront north of Cape Hatteras, battering 
waves will cause damage to property. Numerous roads will be 
impassable under several feet of water and vehicles will be 
submerged. Some neighborhoods will be isolated and some areas may 
need to be evacuated. Portions of NC 12 will likely become inundated 
and impassible.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Wind Advisory from 7 AM Saturday to 5 PM EST Sunday for NCZ045-
     080-194-195-199.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Monday 
     for NCZ094-194-196-203>205.
     High Wind Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 5 PM EST Sunday for 
     NCZ046-047-081-094-196-203>205.
     High Surf Advisory from 7 AM Saturday to 1 PM EST Monday for 
     NCZ196-203>205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Monday 
     for NCZ046-047-080-081.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for AMZ136.
     Storm Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday for 
     AMZ137.
     Storm Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 5 PM EST Sunday for AMZ131-
     135-150-152-154-156-158-230-231.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RTE
SHORT TERM...RTE
LONG TERM...RTE
AVIATION...RTE/TL
MARINE...RTE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX