559 
FXUS63 KEAX 080936
AFDMCI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
436 AM CDT TUE JUN 8 2004

.DISCUSSION...

CHANGED LITTLE OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT. MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE 
TIMING POPS THROUGH THE WEEK. PRACTICALLY TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINS 
OVER THE REGION. MCV OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA IS STILL TRYING TO WORK 
ITS WAY NORTH-NORTHEAST. SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA FILLED IN 
SOME OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT IT TO BE A LITTLE MORE SCATTERED DURING 
THE DAY. SO HAVE LEFT POPS AT 30 AND PUSHED THEM FARTHER NORTH...AS 
GFS/ETA MODELS PROG THE VORT MAX TO MOVE A LITTLE MORE NORTH THAN 
NORTHEAST BEFORE SHEARING OUT THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR TRENDS LOOK TO 
BE BACKING THIS UP. WILL NEED TO WATCH EVOLUTION OF PRECIP TODAY 
WITH NO CAP...CAPE GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG AND MCV IN THE VICINITY.

AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE UNCAPPED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. SO ANY 
DISTURBANCE COULD SET OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. 20-30 
POPS SEEM WARRANTED. BUMPED POPS UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
MISSOURI COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER VORT MAX MOVES ACROSS 
SOUTHERN INTO EASTERN MISSOURI.

MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMP FORECAST AFTER WEDNESDAY.

NRR

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

410 PM...
A NUMBER OF CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND MOST OF THEM DEAL WITH 
THE WOBBLY MCV OVER NORTHEAST OK AND THEN AN ENSUING VORTICITY 
CENTER COMING OUT OF EAST TEXAS FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND 
WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED IN 150 PM DISCUSSION BELOW...MODELS 
TYPICALLY DO POORLY WITH THESE TYPES OF FEATURES IN WEAK MID LEVEL 
FLOW. 

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA WESTWARD TO THE LOWER MS 
VALLEY. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD FROM THE 
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS UPPER RIDGE. THE 
RESULT IS AN INFLUX OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INTO THE CWA AND 
VORTICITY CENTERS TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 
LEAD VORTICITY CENTER OVER NORTHEAST OK IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT AND 
SHEAR NORTH NORTHEAST TONIGHT. LACKING MUCH OF A CAP THE CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS NOT BEEN DIURNALLY DRIVEN. AM 
EXPECTING TO SEE ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING TO THE 
NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL 
AFTER SUNSET. HAVE ADDED CHANCE POPS TO FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FOR 
TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTHEAST HALF OF CWA FOR TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES 
WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER SO HAVE ADDED A FEW 
DEGREES TO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS AND LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES ON 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. 

NEXT FEATURE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD IMPACT FORECAST AREA 
VERY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR BETTER BET IS WEDNESDAY. HAVE NOT GONE 
WILD ON POPS AS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE. 

MJ

FOR THURSDAY AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE MID RANGE MODELS 
CONTINUE TO DISPLAY A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT. THE 
TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION IS PROGGED TO BEGIN 
BROADENING...EJECTING A NUMBER OF STOUT SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE 
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EAST 
CONUS SURFACE HIGH WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
TRYING TO MOVE INTO MISSOURI UNTIL SUNDAY. THEREFORE...A HOT HUMID 
AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN 
MISSOURI THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AND ANY LITTLE 
FEATURE COULD INSTIGATE PRECIP. TO AVOID UBIQUITOUS CHANCE POPS FOR 
THE LAST HALF OF THE FORECAST...I HAVE TRIED TO FOCUS THEM ON TWO 
SHORTWAVE FEATURES THAT ARE PROGGED TO LIFT OUT OF THE TROUGH LATE 
THIS WORK WEEK AND LATE THIS WEEKEND. 

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT I HAVE CHANCE POPS COVERING 
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...EXITING THE WESTERN 
TROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...WILL ADD SOME STRENGTH TO THE SOUTHWEST 
FLOW...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK UNTIL THEN. THIS 
STRENGTHENED FLOW SHOULD ENHANCE THETA-E ADVECTION AS IT PUSHES A 
WEAK WARM FRONT NORTH. FOR SATURDAY I HAVE CONTINUED OUR SLIGHT 
CHANCE POPS AS THE 12Z GFS INDICATES THAT THE THETA RIDGE SHOULD 
HAVE PUSHED TO OUR EAST...AND THAT THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL BE 
ALONG THE WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT 
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN 
PLAINS. I HAVE KEPT OUR CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AS A COLD 
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SWEPT THROUGH KANSAS AND MISSOURI BY THIS 
WAVE. 

CUTTER 

150 PM...
HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN PORTION OF CWA DUE TO 
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND TEMPERATURE TREND. WILL BE ADDING CHANCE 
POPS TO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT FOR CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH MCV LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. 
NGM SEEMS TO HAVE BEST HAND ON FEATURE. MODELS NORMALLY HAVE A 
DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING THIS TYPE OF FEATURE EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK 
MID LEVEL FLOW. THUS MODEL QPF LOOKS POOR WITH NGM FARING THE BEST.

MJ  

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

WFO EAX

EFFECTIVE TUESDAY JUNE 8 2004...THE AWIPS PRODUCT IDENTIFIER FOR 
THIS PRODUCT WILL CHANGE FROM AFDMCI TO AFDEAX.  THE WMO HEADER WILL 
REMAIN UNCHANGED.  PLEASE ENSURE THAT ANY NEEDED CHANGES ARE 
COMPLETED BY JUNE 8 2004.