National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLUB Received: 2019-02-12 04:34 UTC

FXUS64 KLUB 120434

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1034 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019

A cold front is currently pushing through the region with the
highest winds being experienced at KCDS. After a few hours, winds
will finally relax at all TAF sites.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 243 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019/ 

Early this afternoon, a tightly wound upper low continued to roll
southeast from the Albuquerque area complete with some heavy 
snow squalls earlier at Clines Corner. Ahead of this low, the
leading edge of height falls and much colder temps aloft were
contributing to scattered showers and some thunderstorms in the
southern TX Panhandle. This activity should continue to develop
eastward within 250 J/kg or so of SBCAPE. Wind-wise, the upper 
low and its parent upper trough will finally nudge thick high 
clouds out of the southern South Plains in time for strong SW 
winds to engulf the region in the next few hours along with 
blowing dust. However, the high wind potential has definitely lost
some punch as the strongest wind maxima aloft (75 knots at 500mb 
and 45 knots at 700mb) won't reach our counties along the NM 
border until closer to 5 PM. It's around this time that a Pacific 
front will be sweeping east ahead of decent pressure rises. This
front should also aid in focusing some instances of 40+ mph winds
and/or gusts near 60 mph for most of our counties along the NM
border. However, this window for high winds is smaller in size
that we have gone ahead and cancelled the High Wind Warning for 
Lubbock, Lynn, Hale, and Parmer Counties in favor of a Wind 
Advisory. Both the High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory were 
extended one hour until 7 PM as the HRRR and RAP indicate some 
strong winds lingering a bit past 6 PM. Additionally, a second and
much shorter round of 30+ mph winds may unfold tonight behind a 
Canadian front, mainly across the southeast Panhandle near a 40 
knot northerly low level jet and stronger pressure rises. This 
threat appears too abbreviated in time and coverage to justify an 
additional Wind Advisory for the time being.

A cool surface high dropping southeast over the region tomorrow 
will bring a welcome break from windy conditions before the West
Texas wind machine attempts an encore on Thursday. Following some
tolerable SW breezes on Wed and warming conditions within a 
developing thermal ridge, Thursday spells a recipe for stronger
west winds and very warm temps given a weak shortwave trough 
passing overhead by peak heating. Although we have trended winds 
higher into the 20-30 mph range, the ECMWF is faster with a backdoor
cold front which could disrupt these winds for many areas, mainly 
northeast of Lubbock. By Thursday night and Friday, uncertainty is
very high as the GFS and ECMWF diverge on a second trough and
whether or not we see a stronger wedge of cold air dump southward
behind the trough. For now, we've trended cooler toward the GFS 
and NationalBlend, but this could go much colder and much warmer
pending tonight's model runs. Mean westerly flow continues aloft
through the first half of the weekend ahead of what appears to be
a cold snap early next week as arctic air builds through the 
middle of the CONUS, possibly affecting West TX as early as Sun. 
Oddly, models agree nicely this many days out regarding a 
deepening trough to our west on Sun which could deliver some 
wintry precip to parts of the region soon thereafter. Inserted a 
diminished version of Superblend PoPs for Monday, but otherwise
this will be given more attention in the days ahead.

The biggest change to the fire weather headlines this afternoon 
was to cancel the Red Flag Warning for all counties east of Hale, 
Lubbock and Lynn. This is due to low level moisture remaining 
intact much longer than we originally expected, so even once SW 
winds amplify later this afternoon in the wake of high clouds, the
window for sufficient drying is very narrow. Farther west, 
critical wildfire conditions are on track as strong W-SW winds 
with gusts near 50 mph have already been logged near the NM 
border. RFTI values of generally 3 and 4 are likely, but a Pacific
front pushing east through the South Plains this evening should 
end the critical wildfire threat as much cooler temperatures 
arrive, despite still breezy W winds. Winds will turn NW early 
tonight, then more northerly overnight behind a Canadian front. 
Fire weather concerns may return on Thursday as even warmer 
temperatures develop over much of the region with 20-30 mph 
westerly winds.