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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLUB Received: 2019-01-12 20:25 UTC

FXUS64 KLUB 122025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
225 PM CST Sat Jan 12 2019

We've been watching the closed low that dragged our cold front 
through overnight exit stage right this afternoon, slowly taking 
with it the remnant cloud shield. Below those clouds, temperatures 
have been a tad slower to warm, only by a few degree difference from 
the western counterparts. Still, breezy northerly winds have kept it 
feeling like the upper 30s across much of the forecast area through 
about 18Z. These winds will settle after sunset as a surface high 
builds in just to our east. Speaking of to our east, well off to the 
east, stretching from the Midwest into the lower Mississippi Valley 
(even into parts of the Northeast) is an impressive precipitation 
shield (read: winter storm), being dug up by the exiting system...a 
feature we sorely missed out on.

As expected, an omega blocking pattern has developed across much of 
the western CONUS with an upper level low over SOCAL trying squeak 
by the southern side. That low will get stretched into the southern 
branch of split flow, of which we are experiencing the more zonal, 
calm side. Therefore, by the time the remnants of this feature reach 
us late Sunday, it will be barely a mild disturbance that might 
bring some light snow to the mountains of NM. Past this, we will be 
awaiting the blocking high to break down starting midweek, thus 
allowing our next impactful storm system to move onto the West Coast 
by Thursday. This will take the shape of a digging trough out of the 
Rockies on Friday that will first sweep a particularly windy Pacific 
front through (dry attm, possibly leading to some elevated fire 
weather concerns). All the while, a dose of Arctic air will be 
moving southward out of Canada into the Central Plains, poised to 
enter our area sometime Friday night. H850 temps range anywhere from 
-4 to -13 degrees across our forecast area for Saturday morning, 
depending on the model, but the main idea, is that translates to 
freezing temps at the surface. How long the cold air will stick 
around still remains to be seen.