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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLUB Received: 2018-11-09 10:02 UTC

FXUS64 KLUB 091002

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
402 AM CST Fri Nov 9 2018

A cool surface high pressure ridge will settle across the southern
plains today in the wake of the upper trough pulling across the
Missouri and upper Mississippi Valleys. Airmass will dry
considerable in the lower atmosphere and we expect the low cloud
cover to break up. Still fairly moist aloft, however, so quality
sun may be difficult for the southern half of the area with high
and some mid level clouds at times - temperatures today will 
remain 15 degrees or so below normal. A chilly night will follow 
tonight, and with better radiational cooling at least northern 
areas, we expect lows early Saturday will approach or drop less 
than freezing in the extreme southeast Texas Panhandle and 
northern Rolling Plains. Considered adding the southern Rolling 
Plains to the Freeze Watch, but mid and high clouds very well may 
factor into keeping readings more mild further south. And colder 
lows are on the way early next week that finally will bring a 
solid freeze threat even in our southeast, which just now is 
reaching the climatological date for normal first fall freeze. So,
no changes were made to the earlier Freeze Watch for tonight
across the northern Rolling Plains and extreme southeast Texas

Saturday will bring breezy conditions as a surface low pressure 
trough deepens across the Texas Panhandle and South Plains while a
trailing weak upper trough scoots east and should clear out some 
of the mid and upper moisture. So, a warmer day is expected - 
highs mostly mid 50s - but still below normal and consistent with
the suppressed mid level height field. 

Sunday will bring a change as a sharp upper level low pressure
trough digs southeast through the central Rockies towards the
Texas Panhandle and South Plains. A strong Canadian Cold front
will pass by mid or late Sunday morning, with a relatively mild
early start on Sunday transitioning to windy and colder with
falling temperatures later in the day. Backing and increasing 
upper flow will develop Sunday evening leading to an attempt for
mid level saturation, especially late in the evening into Monday
morning as jet level interaction induces lift. Moisture may be
somewhat limited as shown by latest WRF/NAM runs indicating less
low and mid level moisture, hence less precipitation coverage - 
but other solutions remain more generous. We have followed general
trends for now and slightly increased precipitation chances late 
Sunday night. And the airmass will cool enough for a fairly quick 
transition from a liquid favored phase to frozen/snow, should 
moisture hold adequate into early Monday. We also have followed 
our national guidance of snowfall indicting potential 
accumulations, perhaps an inch or more, favoring the northern 
half of our area for now. Should moisture hold abundant, the jet 
structure may support up to several inches of snow potential and 
perhaps lead to Winter Weather Advisories for early Monday. But, 
still too far out for any significant weather products, other than
continuing to mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

Snow chances will diminish later Monday as the upper trough kicks
to the east. Much cooler air will follow and a widespread freeze
looks very reasonable by Monday night. Cool and dry northwest flow
aloft will follow into midweek - then heights will further flatten
and allow warming later in the week. RMcQueen


Freeze Watch from this evening through Saturday morning for