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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLUB Received: 2018-11-09 04:33 UTC


896 
FXUS64 KLUB 090433
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1033 PM CST Thu Nov 8 2018

.AVIATION...
Drier air a little slower to work in than anticipated with MVFR
ceilings likely to hang at least through the first few hours of
the forecast after which time VFR conditions are expected to
prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 355 PM CST Thu Nov 8 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...
This forecast features a possible first freeze of the season for 
some counties off the Caprock Friday night, and much colder air and 
the potential for our first wintry weather of the season by late 
Sunday into Monday.

Before we jump into the fun, low clouds have held tough today and 
this has kept temperatures cool...only in the middle and upper 40s 
at 21Z. These low clouds will persist at most spots into the evening 
hours and could even be productive at times generating pockets of 
drizzle. In addition, mid/upper level lift from a shearing out upper 
trough will traverse the region overnight. This could generate a few 
showers, though a reinforcing shot of surface ridging will advect in 
cooler and drier air at the lower levels (and tend to thwart the 
risk of measurable precipitation). Still isolated light showers 
can't be completely ruled out and there may even be enough cold 
air for a few snowflakes across the northwest zones after 
midnight. 

Relatively quiet weather will follow Friday and Saturday
as the progressive surface ridge shifts eastward to the 
Mississippi River Valley by Saturday. Before exiting the region, 
the ridge will provide another cool day tomorrow complete with 
more sunshine, though a fair amount of mid-level cloud cover may 
persist over at least the southern half or so of the CWA. This 
cloud cover will like linger Friday night and could have 
ramification on overnight temperatures. Right now it looks like 
our northern zones will be most likely to maintain mostly clear 
conditions much of the night and this should allow temperatures to
dip to near or slightly below the freezing mark. Given that the 
southeast Texas Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains have yet to 
experience a freeze this fall we have decided to hoist a freeze 
watch there (though they are now slightly beyond their average 
first freeze date). 

Breezy southerly return flow will follow on Saturday which will help 
highs recover into the lower to middle 50s. A milder night will 
greet us Saturday night before much bigger changes. 

The upper flow will buckle as an upper ridge amplifies off the West 
Coast and this will open the door for the coldest air of the 
season to plunge southward down the High Plains. There remain 
modest timing differences with the Sunday cold front which could 
impact highs, but regardless, much colder air should be pouring 
in by late in the day (if not earlier). This air mass should 
secure widespread freezing conditions for most spots by Monday 
morning, and if any place escapes a freeze then, like the Rolling
Plains, they will most definitely experience one Monday night. In
addition to the cold, an upper trough with one or two embedded 
disturbances will approach and pass late Sunday into Monday. As 
they do so, large scale ascent will quickly increase Sunday 
evening and continue into Monday morning before quickly 
diminishing from west-to-east. This should support widespread 
precipitation in the region, with the latest trends looking like 
much of the CWA could see at least some precipitation. It could 
begin as rain but would quickly change over to snow as the 
vertical column cools Sunday night, with the potential for 
accumulating snowfall. It is too early to get into snow amounts, 
but accumulating snowfall is looking more likely for the region 
and we have heightened the wording in the HWO. It will definitely 
be something to keep an eye as we refine the forecast over the 
coming days.

Dry weather will resume behind the upper trough by Monday evening 
and should continue through the remainder of the forecast as 
northwesterly flow aloft gradually backs and weakens. Temperatures 
will moderate through the middle of next week as the surface high 
departs and heights climb, though any residual snowfall could 
temper warming a bit early on.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for 
TXZ025-026-031-032.

&&

$$

07