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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLUB Received: 2018-11-08 17:44 UTC

FXUS64 KLUB 081744

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1144 AM CST Thu Nov 8 2018

IFR ceilings are still expected to improve to MVFR later this
afternoon, before resuming a downward trend this evening with
perhaps some drizzle. Drier northerly winds behind a cold front 
toward midnight should erode low ceilings from N-S, with VFR 
likely all day Friday.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 333 AM CST Thu Nov 8 2018/ 


No major changes to the forecast today. The cooler and drizzly 
like weather that has spread across the South Plains will hold 
steady today as low level moisture continues to overrun the cold 
air. Late tonight, a shortwave trough aloft will dive SE across the 
Intermountain West sending a reinforcing shot of cold air through 
the CWA. Gusty NE winds will accompany this cold air helping to 
dry out much of the CWA. The only exception will be across the far
western and southern zones where light snow/rain showers could 
occur before drying reaches those areas. 

A slow "warming" trend will occur Friday and Saturday as lee surface 
troughing develops and SW winds increase. Sunday evening into 
Monday, the weather turns colder and wetter as a strong upper 
level shortwave trough is projected to move across the region. 
Models continue to disagree on QPF amounts, with the GFS looking 
the driest. Nonetheless, even if the precip opportunity is short 
lived, moisture appears ample enough and with help from the 
exiting subtropical jet precipitation will be possible area wide.
Temperatures will be cold enough for snow across much of the 
area. Thus, will continue with the current thinking of rain/snow 
mix for Sunday night into Monday. The upper wave is quick to exit 
the area Monday afternoon creating cool but, dry weather for the 
latter part of next week.