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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLUB Received: 2018-10-11 17:20 UTC


106 
FXUS64 KLUB 111720
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1220 PM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018

.AVIATION...

An area of low clouds has spread across PVW and LBB and is
expected to reach CDS over the next few hours and IFR ceilings 
will continue through most of the period. Guidance doesn't have 
clouds scattering out until late in the period around 16-17Z. 
Southeasterly winds will become more southerly tonight then 
southwesterly tomorrow morning. 

&&



PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 320 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...
Drastic day to day changes will be introduced into our weather 
over the next week.

Although we will see an increase in lift today from an increasing
upper level jet streak our chances of convection will be smaller.
This will be due to the low stratus currently making its way into
the South Plains. Any convection today will likely be limited to
the Permian Basin and points farther to the south where any
surface heating will be. Low stratus will keep us cool all day
today limiting any convective threat. Moist isentropic upglide
will provide chances of rain showers today out of this low stratus
layer or perhaps only some drizzle. This trend will continue
tonight through Friday morning. The upper level jet streak will 
lift to the northeast on Friday leaving West Texas in a large area
of large scale subsidence. At the same time, an upper level 
system moving across the Midwest will be sending a cold front 
through. We may see some brief clearing late on Friday but we will
quickly get a resurgence of moisture from the remnants of Sergio.

There are still differences in the exact track of the remnants of
Sergio with the GFS still the farthest north track with the NAM
and ECMWF farther to the south. However, the ECMWF has trended
more to the north with the latest runs. This will mainly affect 
the area from late Friday through all day Saturday and bring a 
quick one to three inches of rainfall before moving out Saturday 
night. With recent rainfall, this could bring some flooding 
concerns.

The strongest front of the season so far will take place on Sunday
morning. It will bring in very strong surface ridging and drier
air for Monday morning. A warm air advection regime over the cool
surface air will be aided by an upper level trough around the four
corners region. This will result in light precipitation mainly
starting on Sunday and lasting through Monday. Not only that, but
this front will bring temperatures well below seasonal averages. A
freeze looks more likely for the southwestern South Plains with
widespread 30s for both on and off the caprock on Monday morning.
With precipitation chances ongoing, this could bring wintry
precipitation to the southwestern Texas Panhandle and western
South Plains.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/08