National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLUB Received: 2018-10-11 11:37 UTC

FXUS64 KLUB 111137

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
637 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018

Backdoor front has eased through all of the terminals early this
morning with cool, moist easterly winds in its wake. This setup
has supported the development of low clouds on the Caprock. KPVW
has recently seen LIFR conditions materialize, and KLBB will soon
see IFR to LIFR as well. Expect cigs to gradually raise to MVFR
at KPVW and KLBB by this afternoon, where they will likely remain
into the evening hours. KCDS could also see stratus overspread 
the terminal, though it will probably be high MVFR to low VFR. 
Ceilings may drop back to IFR or worse late Friday night. In 
addition to the persistent cigs, a rogue shower can't be ruled out
late today into tonight.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 320 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018/ 

Drastic day to day changes will be introduced into our weather 
over the next week.

Although we will see an increase in lift today from an increasing
upper level jet streak our chances of convection will be smaller.
This will be due to the low stratus currently making its way into
the South Plains. Any convection today will likely be limited to
the Permian Basin and points farther to the south where any
surface heating will be. Low stratus will keep us cool all day
today limiting any convective threat. Moist isentropic upglide
will provide chances of rain showers today out of this low stratus
layer or perhaps only some drizzle. This trend will continue
tonight through Friday morning. The upper level jet streak will 
lift to the northeast on Friday leaving West Texas in a large area
of large scale subsidence. At the same time, an upper level 
system moving across the Midwest will be sending a cold front 
through. We may see some brief clearing late on Friday but we will
quickly get a resurgence of moisture from the remnants of Sergio.

There are still differences in the exact track of the remnants of
Sergio with the GFS still the farthest north track with the NAM
and ECMWF farther to the south. However, the ECMWF has trended
more to the north with the latest runs. This will mainly affect 
the area from late Friday through all day Saturday and bring a 
quick one to three inches of rainfall before moving out Saturday 
night. With recent rainfall, this could bring some flooding 

The strongest front of the season so far will take place on Sunday
morning. It will bring in very strong surface ridging and drier
air for Monday morning. A warm air advection regime over the cool
surface air will be aided by an upper level trough around the four
corners region. This will result in light precipitation mainly
starting on Sunday and lasting through Monday. Not only that, but
this front will bring temperatures well below seasonal averages. A
freeze looks more likely for the southwestern South Plains with
widespread 30s for both on and off the caprock on Monday morning.
With precipitation chances ongoing, this could bring wintry
precipitation to the southwestern Texas Panhandle and western
South Plains.