IEM :: AFD from NWS LCH

641 
FXUS64 KLCH 122136
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
336 PM CST Tue Feb 12 2019

.DISCUSSION...

The surface cold front that brought rain and thunderstorms to the
area earlier has exited the area and is ushering in a period of
rather benign weather over the next several days. While a series
of shortwave troughs are forecast to progress across the CONUS,
there are expected to remain well north of the region which will
result in rainfall chances being essentially non-existent or very
low through the weekend. This will also result in persistent
southwesterly flow aloft which will advect abnormally warm 850 hPa
temperatures over the region this weekend. Deep mixing during the
day will allow for temperatures to climb into the mid-to-upper 70s
and possibly into the low 80s, especially on Friday and Saturday.

During the early to middle part of next week, a deeper trough is
expected to develop over the western US while an upper level ridge
builds off the SE coast of the US. This upper level pattern will
promote increasing moisture transport across the region. As a
result, rainfall chances increase from Sunday through Wednesday of
next week. Increasing cloud cover and precipitation chances will
also contribute to temperatures returning to closer to normal for
mid-February. 

&&

.MARINE...

Northerly winds around 20 knots will develop over the coastal
waters tonight and continue through Wednesday night, resulting in
Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions. Winds will shift easterly
during the day Wednesday with a moderate onshore flow redeveloping
Wednesday evening. This onshore flow will continue into the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  36  64  43  73 /   0   0   0   0 
LCH  40  64  47  72 /   0   0   0  10 
LFT  40  65  45  73 /   0   0   0  10 
BPT  41  63  50  73 /   0   0  10  10 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution through late tonight for GMZ450-452-
     455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...26

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