National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLCH Received: 2019-02-12 17:46 UTC


061 
FXUS64 KLCH 121746
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1146 AM CST Tue Feb 12 2019

.DISCUSSION...
For 18z TAF issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Basically a wind forecast this period as, once the rain departs
Acadiana in the next hour, forecast time-height sections indicate
quickly diminishing moisture through the column. Am a little
concerned about fog potential given clearing skies and diminishing
winds after sunset over the possibility of some lingering boundary
layer moisture which the models may be glossing over, but 
guidance isn't very bullish on it so have left it out for now.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1007 AM CST Tue Feb 12 2019/ 

UPDATE...

This morning's regional radar mosaic and surface observations show
the initial cold front has pushed east into Acadiana. This front
and the showers associated with it are expected to continue moving
eastward and clearing the CWA by mid-afternoon. Overall, the
forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made to the
PoPs through the rest of the morning to better match current
observations and short term guidance.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 539 AM CST Tue Feb 12 2019/ 

AVIATION...Showers are now exiting lower Acadiana associated with
a pre-frontal trof that has advanced across the area. Patchy and 
light stratiform rains will follow this activity, then end from 
west to east through the morning as the main frontal boundary
advances through. Clearing skies will then follow as sharply drier
air through the column enters the area with the approach of the
upper trof. Otherwise look for winds primarily from the northwest
through the day sustained at 10 to 12 knots with gusts up to 
about 20.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 443 AM CST Tue Feb 12 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
Overnight precipitation was associated with a prefrontal line of 
showers and thunderstorms ahead of the next front. Showers still
linger behind the line of storms but will end around sunrise in
southeast Texas and by the late morning hours for south central
Louisiana. Current temps are in the upper 60s acrs srn Louisiana
and near 70 for se Tx. 

The front is expected to move into Hardin and Taylor counties in
the next hour or so with temps falling into the upper 50s. 
Currently Beaumont is 69 degrees. Therefore we are looking at 
about a ten degree drop with temperatures trending down through 
the day but will recover during the middle afternoon as skies 
will be clearing. The clear line is currently located along a 
line from Tyler to Austin moving southeast. For southern 
Louisiana this will take several hours longer but with the same 
out come. Winds will be strong and gusty in the coastal waters 
today with seas buildings a result. They are expected to settle 
this evening only to pick back up late tonight.

Wednesday will start out colder than we have had for the last
several days. Near 40 along the I-10 corridor which will be about
a 25 degree change. But the fog will be gone and the skies will be
clear as high pressure at surface settles in. Thursday will see 
winds swing around towards the southeast late ahead as still 
another system that is expected to move through on Friday. All the
activity will be out of the area during the evening hours. Not 
looking for any precip with the next system. 

As for the weekend... it looks nice and a bit cooler.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  63  36  65  44 /  20   0   0   0 
LCH  65  39  64  49 /  20   0   0   0 
LFT  66  40  65  47 /  60   0   0   0 
BPT  64  40  63  51 /  10   0   0   0 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution until 1 PM CST this afternoon for 
     GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$