National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLCH Received: 2019-02-12 01:34 UTC


472 
FXUS64 KLCH 120134
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
734 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019

.UPDATE...Sea fog is moving inland from the coast this evening,
however a cold front will move through the region after midnight.
The front will mix out the dense fog in SE TX earliest then later
in lower Acadiana. North of I-10 winds are expected to remain
elevated enough to keep the fog mixed enough to not be dense. The
adv goes through 4AM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 535 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
For the 12/00Z TAF Issuance.

AVIATION...
Modest southerly flow will continue during the evening until a
cold front moves through during the overnight hours. Expect MVFR
conditions during the evening to become IFR with showers and a few
thunderstorms right ahead of the front overnight. Timing of the 
front is around 12/09-10Z for KBPT/KLCH/KAEX and 12/12-13Z for 
KLFT/KARA. VFR conditions to gradually developing behind the front
on Tuesday morning with gusty northwest winds.

Rua

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...

Short Term...Tonight through Wednesday...

This afternoon's surface analysis shows a cold front extending
through eastern Texas. A regional radar mosaic shows showers along
and ahead of the front. The front is expected to progress
southeastward across the region through the overnight hours. A few
thunderstorms may also accompany the cold front, but no severe
weather is anticipated. 

The front is expected to clear the CWA by mid-morning and high 
pressure will begin to build into the region. Clear skies should
allow for temperatures to climb into the mid-to-upper 60s on
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Long Term...Thursday through Monday...

A more progressive upper level pattern is expected to develop
during the long term period. A series of shortwave troughs are
forecast to progress across the CONUS. The first shortwave trough
is expected to approach the region late Thursday into Friday. The
onshore flow and warm air advection near the surface ahead of the
trough will result in well above normal temperatures on Thursday
and Friday. Daytime temperatures in the mid 70s are expected and
some of the deterministic model guidance indicates highs near 80
will be possible. Little in the way of precipitation, other than a
few isolated showers, will be possible with the passage of this
system.

Zonal upper level flow and surface high pressure are expected to
develop behind this first trough. This will result in dry 
conditions and near to slightly above normal temperatures are 
expected through the weekend. The next appreciable chance for 
precipitation is expected during the Monday to Tuesday timeframe
of next week when another trough is forecast to move across the
CONUS.

MARINE...

The main marine forecast challenge in the short term will be how
the fog will evolve ahead of an approaching cold front. Areas of
dense fog have become less widespread over the past few hours but
still lingers in pockets along the immediate coast. Model guidance
continues to indicate the potential for the sea fog to redevelop
and move further inland during the evening hours. However, surface
winds are expected to increase ahead of an approaching cold front
which could limit how dense and far inland the fog will spread.

The cold front will move across the coastal waters after midnight
bringing an end to the fog. A period of moderate to strong
northwest winds will develop behind the cold front and continue
through Thursday evening. High pressure will then push east of the
region resulting in the redevelopment of onshore flow ahead of the
next cold front which will move through the coastal waters Friday.

Based on the uncertainty with any redevelopment of the fog and 
the onset of winds 21 knots or great expected to be closer to 6
AM, no changes were made to any of the marine hazards at this
time. The next shift will monitor the forecast and make any
necessary changes to the hazards.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  58  64  37  65 /  80  20   0   0 
LCH  60  66  40  65 /  80  20   0   0 
LFT  61  67  41  65 /  80  50   0   0 
BPT  59  65  41  65 /  70  10   0   0 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM CST Tuesday for LAZ041>045-052>055-
     073-074.

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM CST Tuesday for TXZ215-216.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ430-432-435-450-
     452-455.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...05