National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLCH Received: 2018-10-12 16:20 UTC


058 
FXUS64 KLCH 121620
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1120 AM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018

.DISCUSSION...Similar afternoon highs expected today as yesterday
and trending near the norm. Forecast looks good and no morning
update will be required.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 619 AM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...

 12/12Z TAF Issuance.

 
 &&

AVIATION...

 IR satellite imagery currently has clear skies over all
terminals. Some mid-level clouds may make their way over
BPT/LCH/AEX later this afternoon. However, VFR conditions will 
prevail through the forecast period. Winds will be light/variable 
at times, but overall prevailing from the north/northeast at only 
a few knots.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 AM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...
Early morning sfc analysis shows the area remains under the
control of high pressure centered over middle Mississippi
Valley...meanwhile, low pressure was noted over the lee of the
Rockies with a trailing cold front through the Desert Southwest.
Water vapor imagery shows flat ridging in place over the s-cntl
CONUS while troffing extends through the Rockies to a low off the
California coast. IR imagery shows plentiful high cloudiness
associated with moisture streaming out from EPac TS Sergio nearing
Baja California is working its way to the srn Plains/Red River
Valley and some of this cirrus is beginning to approach the nwrn
zones at this time. Otherwise it's a clear and cool morning with
sfc obs indicating temps in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

One more pleasant day with seasonal temps and rather dry RH values
looks on tap for today as the flat ridging aloft lingers and the
sfc high creeps ewd through the day. As we move into tonight,
dewpoints will begin to nudge back upward as the high moves into
the Ohio Valley and low-level winds turn more serly. In response,
mins tonight look to run several degrees above normal. 

Saturday looks to remain on the dry side although rain chances
don't look to be too far away as the remnants of Sergio get caught
up in the wswrly flow aloft and pass by to our nw/n. With
increasing flow off the Gulf, temperatures will warm to the
lower/mid 80s for highs...with lows Saturday night back in the 70s
for the swrn zones (65-70 elsewhere).

The weak frontal system out to our west is progged to get pulled
toward the region through the weekend, in response to a strong
shortwave crossing the nrn tier of the country. With increasing
mid-level moisture as the flow aloft turns more swrly, could see
enough influence from the front to allow for a few showers mainly
over the nwrn 1/4 of the area on Sunday, mainly afternoon/evening
hours.

POPs really ramp up beginning Monday as the front pushes through
the forecast area. Cooler air will also filter across the region
with temps Monday night dropping back to the 50s for most of us.
With swrly flow lingering aloft, Tuesday looks like a cloudy and
cool day (highs only in the 60s as of now) with elevated rain
chances persisting. Some model discrepancies are noted beyond 
this time frame...held onto small POPs to account for this as the 
flow aloft looks to remain at least somewhat conducive for more 
overrunning-type showers through mid-week. 

MARINE...
Winds on the outer waters will relax the remainder of the night
with light veering flow expected through the day today and into
tonight. Southeasterly flow will linger into the weekend before
becoming more srly and increasing Saturday night as weak low
pressure...the sfc reflection of Sergio's remains...tracks across
nrn TX, tightening the gradient. Another round of elevated flow,
this time nrly, is anticipated late in the forecast period behind
the next cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  79  62  82  65 /   0  10  10  10 
LCH  81  64  84  72 /   0  10   0   0 
LFT  81  63  85  69 /   0   0   0   0 
BPT  81  66  83  75 /   0  10  10  10 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...23