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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLCH Received: 2018-10-12 16:20 UTC
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058 FXUS64 KLCH 121620 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1120 AM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018 .DISCUSSION...Similar afternoon highs expected today as yesterday and trending near the norm. Forecast looks good and no morning update will be required. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 619 AM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018/ DISCUSSION... 12/12Z TAF Issuance. && AVIATION... IR satellite imagery currently has clear skies over all terminals. Some mid-level clouds may make their way over BPT/LCH/AEX later this afternoon. However, VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Winds will be light/variable at times, but overall prevailing from the north/northeast at only a few knots. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 AM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018/ DISCUSSION... Early morning sfc analysis shows the area remains under the control of high pressure centered over middle Mississippi Valley...meanwhile, low pressure was noted over the lee of the Rockies with a trailing cold front through the Desert Southwest. Water vapor imagery shows flat ridging in place over the s-cntl CONUS while troffing extends through the Rockies to a low off the California coast. IR imagery shows plentiful high cloudiness associated with moisture streaming out from EPac TS Sergio nearing Baja California is working its way to the srn Plains/Red River Valley and some of this cirrus is beginning to approach the nwrn zones at this time. Otherwise it's a clear and cool morning with sfc obs indicating temps in the upper 50s to lower 60s. One more pleasant day with seasonal temps and rather dry RH values looks on tap for today as the flat ridging aloft lingers and the sfc high creeps ewd through the day. As we move into tonight, dewpoints will begin to nudge back upward as the high moves into the Ohio Valley and low-level winds turn more serly. In response, mins tonight look to run several degrees above normal. Saturday looks to remain on the dry side although rain chances don't look to be too far away as the remnants of Sergio get caught up in the wswrly flow aloft and pass by to our nw/n. With increasing flow off the Gulf, temperatures will warm to the lower/mid 80s for highs...with lows Saturday night back in the 70s for the swrn zones (65-70 elsewhere). The weak frontal system out to our west is progged to get pulled toward the region through the weekend, in response to a strong shortwave crossing the nrn tier of the country. With increasing mid-level moisture as the flow aloft turns more swrly, could see enough influence from the front to allow for a few showers mainly over the nwrn 1/4 of the area on Sunday, mainly afternoon/evening hours. POPs really ramp up beginning Monday as the front pushes through the forecast area. Cooler air will also filter across the region with temps Monday night dropping back to the 50s for most of us. With swrly flow lingering aloft, Tuesday looks like a cloudy and cool day (highs only in the 60s as of now) with elevated rain chances persisting. Some model discrepancies are noted beyond this time frame...held onto small POPs to account for this as the flow aloft looks to remain at least somewhat conducive for more overrunning-type showers through mid-week. MARINE... Winds on the outer waters will relax the remainder of the night with light veering flow expected through the day today and into tonight. Southeasterly flow will linger into the weekend before becoming more srly and increasing Saturday night as weak low pressure...the sfc reflection of Sergio's remains...tracks across nrn TX, tightening the gradient. Another round of elevated flow, this time nrly, is anticipated late in the forecast period behind the next cold front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 79 62 82 65 / 0 10 10 10 LCH 81 64 84 72 / 0 10 0 0 LFT 81 63 85 69 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 81 66 83 75 / 0 10 10 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC...23