National Weather Service Raw Text Product
Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLCH Received: 2018-05-21 17:44 UTC
382 FXUS64 KLCH 211744 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1244 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018 .AVIATION... No major changes to TAFs in the afternoon package. Bulk of thunderstorm activity remains in east Texas with a few thunderstorms beginning to occur in southwest Louisiana near the gulf. BPT remains the most likely to see additional thunderstorms throughout the day but LCH as well as LFT/ARA will still have chances this afternoon. Guidance suggesting AEX should stay VFR with light southerly winds. Outside of any thunderstorms/showers expecting VFR ceilings/vis with light and generally southerly winds... Though any nearby collapsing storms will be capable of kicking outflow boundaries through the terminals leading to brief change of wind direction and a few gusts above 20kts. Storms should die off after sunset with winds becoming calm and variable with VFR conditions... some very patchy fog may be possible before sunrise but chances were low enough to not add any vis restrictions to the terminals at this time. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 935 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018/ UPDATE... Weak upper trough over southeast Texas this morning has allowed convection to initialize earlier than it would in a purely diurnally driven environment. This activity extends further to the east than the forecast indicated so inserted isolated POPs across acadiana and the nearshore waters for the remainder of the morning. Expect overall coverage to continue to increase through the day aided by heating. The remainder of the forecast is on track. Jones PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 605 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018/ AVIATION...Generally VFR conditions are expected through the period, however isolated to scattered thunderstorms will occur this afternoon. Periods of however vis and ceilings can be expected in and around storms. Near calm winds this morning will become light and generally south late morning to mid day. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 502 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018/ DISCUSSION... Higher chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected the next few days as a weak upper trof axis meanders across the region. As depicted by nearly all short range guidance, best chances today appear to lie across E/SE TX amid relative deeper MSTR pool and remnant outflows from convection yesterday. Highest PoPs shift eastward TUE and WED as the trof axis nudges a bit in that direction as well. Little overall change in temperatures is expected the next several days, with highs around 90 and lows in the upper 60s north/lower 70s south. Any moderation will occur via convection and/or cloud cover. Considerable uncertainty enters the forecast toward the end of the week and especially into the weekend as there is a fair amount of spread/divergence in global model solutions regarding the evolution of an upper low and associated SFC feature. GFS is by far the weakest solution, depicting more of an elongated trof over the central Gulf and a weak SFC low that lifts quickly NWD to the east of FL. ECMWF is the strongest, with a vertically stacked low over SC LA by SUN. The CMC is between these two, but is closer to the ECMWF than the GFS. Leaned heavily on a consensus of the ECMWF/CMC and WPC for the Day 4-7 forecast, which in terms of sensible weather elements, was fairly close to the previous forecast. Further revisions to these periods are likely over the next few days as a hopefully better guidance consensus takes shape. 13 MARINE... Weak high pressure will continue to ridge over the coastal waters through mid-week, with a mainly light southeast flow expected. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase by Tuesday and continue through the remainder of the week as ridging aloft weakens. Marine interests should monitor the forecast for the weekend 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 69 92 69 92 / 10 40 20 50 LCH 71 90 72 90 / 10 20 20 40 LFT 72 91 73 91 / 10 50 20 50 BPT 71 90 72 91 / 10 20 10 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ AVIATION...50