National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLCH Received: 2018-05-21 17:44 UTC

FXUS64 KLCH 211744

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1244 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

No major changes to TAFs in the afternoon package. Bulk of
thunderstorm activity remains in east Texas with a few
thunderstorms beginning to occur in southwest Louisiana near the
gulf. BPT remains the most likely to see additional thunderstorms
throughout the day but LCH as well as LFT/ARA will still have
chances this afternoon. Guidance suggesting AEX should stay VFR
with light southerly winds. Outside of any thunderstorms/showers
expecting VFR ceilings/vis with light and generally southerly 
winds... Though any nearby collapsing storms will be capable of
kicking outflow boundaries through the terminals leading to brief
change of wind direction and a few gusts above 20kts. Storms
should die off after sunset with winds becoming calm and variable
with VFR conditions... some very patchy fog may be possible before
sunrise but chances were low enough to not add any vis
restrictions to the terminals at this time.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 935 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018/ 

Weak upper trough over southeast Texas this morning has allowed
convection to initialize earlier than it would in a purely 
diurnally driven environment. This activity extends further to the
east than the forecast indicated so inserted isolated POPs across
acadiana and the nearshore waters for the remainder of the 
morning. Expect overall coverage to continue to increase through 
the day aided by heating. The remainder of the forecast is on


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 605 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018/ 

AVIATION...Generally VFR conditions are expected through the
period, however isolated to scattered thunderstorms will occur
this afternoon. Periods of however vis and ceilings can be
expected in and around storms. Near calm winds this morning will 
become light and generally south late morning to mid day.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 502 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018/ 

Higher chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected the next
few days as a weak upper trof axis meanders across the region.
As depicted by nearly all short range guidance, best chances 
today appear to lie across E/SE TX amid relative deeper MSTR pool 
and remnant outflows from convection yesterday. Highest PoPs shift
eastward TUE and WED as the trof axis nudges a bit in that
direction as well. Little overall change in temperatures is
expected the next several days, with highs around 90 and lows in
the upper 60s north/lower 70s south. Any moderation will occur via
convection and/or cloud cover.

Considerable uncertainty enters the forecast toward the end of the
week and especially into the weekend as there is a fair amount of
spread/divergence in global model solutions regarding the
evolution of an upper low and associated SFC feature. GFS is by
far the weakest solution, depicting more of an elongated trof over
the central Gulf and a weak SFC low that lifts quickly NWD to the
east of FL. ECMWF is the strongest, with a vertically stacked low
over SC LA by SUN. The CMC is between these two, but is closer to
the ECMWF than the GFS. Leaned heavily on a consensus of the
ECMWF/CMC and WPC for the Day 4-7 forecast, which in terms of
sensible weather elements, was fairly close to the previous
forecast. Further revisions to these periods are likely over the
next few days as a hopefully better guidance consensus takes


Weak high pressure will continue to ridge over the coastal waters
through mid-week, with a mainly light southeast flow expected. 
Daily shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase by 
Tuesday and continue through the remainder of the week as ridging 
aloft weakens. Marine interests should monitor the forecast for
the weekend 



AEX  69  92  69  92 /  10  40  20  50 
LCH  71  90  72  90 /  10  20  20  40 
LFT  72  91  73  91 /  10  50  20  50 
BPT  71  90  72  91 /  10  20  10  20