National Weather Service Raw Text Product
Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLCH Received: 2019-02-17 17:34 UTC
392 FXUS64 KLCH 171734 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1134 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019 .AVIATION...A cold front will gradually move across the region through the afternoon and evening veering winds north. IFR and occasional LIFR ceilings may occur along with reduced vis in showers or drizzle. Ceilings will improve tonight. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 950 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019/ UPDATE... Light rain noted across the area from southeast Texas northeast into central and northeast Louisiana. Rains are associated with a slow moving cold front... currently located south of Alexandria. Temperatures at Alexandria are in the mid 50s while Lake Charles is 70 degrees and Lafayette is checking in at 69 degrees. As the front pushes south through the day this will see rains gradually ending and the threat of more areas of fog also ending. Current zones are fine for now. DISCUSSION... PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 542 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019/ AVIATION... BKN/OVC stratus will result in predominately IFR ceilings continuing through mid morning before improving to MVFR as a surface front moves across the area. Ahead of the front, areas of fog will produce TEMPO visibility restrictions before being mixed out by the approaching front. The front will result in showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two from 15Z through 18/00Z. S winds of 7-10 knots will gradually shift through the day to to N behind the front and increase to 10 knots this evening. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 344 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019/ DISCUSSION... Current warm front is situated across the area this morning with low clouds and fog dominating the region. A cold front is inbound moving across northeast Texas this morning. The cold front will move across the area today bringing increased chances for showers and possibly a few Thunderstorms. After the front passes, it is forecast to become stationary in the Gulf tonight with a frontal wave developing along the front Monday into Monday night. This will gradually increase showers and thunderstorms Monday night at warm air rides over the cooler surface air. Tuesday into Tuesday night the warm sector is forecast to work into the eastern half of the forecast area. With the increased instability and shear profiles SPC has already highlighted the area for a marginal severe risk Tuesday into Tuesday night. We will continue to monitor this. Wednesday into next weekend, the front will remain nearly stationary across the area keeping the chances for showers and thunderstorms high through the period. Marine... Fog continues to develop over the shelf waters and move inland along the immediate coast. After the front moves through later today the fog will dissipate and there may need to be a small craft advisory issued for tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 42 59 45 60 / 10 10 70 80 LCH 47 61 51 68 / 10 20 60 70 LFT 49 61 52 71 / 40 20 60 60 BPT 48 61 51 66 / 0 20 60 70 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ AVIATION...05