National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLCH Received: 2018-10-23 04:52 UTC

FXUS64 KLCH 230452

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1152 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

For the 10/23/18 0600 UTC TAF package.


No major changes from previous forecast. Still expect a period of
prevailing MVFR CIGS to develop tomorrow afternoon prior to rains
coming to an end tomorrow evening.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018/ 

Updated evening/overnight POPs by nudging them up a bit based on
latest radar trends and short-term guidance...still expect to see
numerous/widespread mainly light showers impacting a good portion
of the forecast area by sunrise. Elsewhere changes were minor if
any as sfc obs/trends showed inherited grids were in good shape as

Update out shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 739 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018/ 

For the 10/23/18 0000 UTC TAF package.

Areas of mainly light rain will continue to gradually overspread
the area through the night, with rain becoming more
persistent/moderate near the coast on TUE. VFR is expected to 
prevail through the period at KAEX. At the I-10 terminals. VFR is 
expected to prevail through at least the evening hours, with the 
potential for MVFR CIGS developing during the overnight/early TUE 
morning period. Nonetheless, held off on prevailing MVFR until 
TUE afternoon when there is a better consensus in numerical 
guidance/model data.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 429 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018/ 

Sfc high pres is providing for mild conditions with a generally 
light northeasterly flow over the area. Aloft, considerable 
cloudiness continues as moisture from Hurricane Willa, located off
the western coast of Mexico, streams over the region on 
southwesterly flow. The latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows 
abundant moisture crossing TX between a trough over the 
southwestern states and a ridge over the southern Gulf of Mexico.


Showers will begin to develop from the southwest tonight as 
moisture continues to increase over the area with the approach of 
a weak disturbance aloft. At the sfc, lower pres will develop 
along the western end of a frontal boundary over the Gulf of 
Mexico, which will provide additional lift for the development of 
the showers tonight into Tuesday. Temperatures will remain 
relatively cool, thanks to the combination of cloud cover as well 
as increasing rain chcs. Lows tonight and Tuesday night are 
expected to be mostly in the 50s (with a few locations in the 
lower 60s), while highs Tuesday will only reach the middle and 
upper 60s. 

Hurricane Willa will move inland over Mexico Tuesday evening. This
will result in rain chcs increasing substantially Wednesday into 
Thursday as Willa's remnants and moisture merge with the low off
the TX coast. The entire system will deepen just off the upper TX
coast as a shortwave trough moves east acrs TX. Model guidance is
in fairly good agreement in taking the low northeast near or just
off the LA coast Wednesday night then east of the area Thursday.
This would limit any inland transport of sfc based instability,
keeping the potential for any tstms mainly near the coast and acrs
south cntl LA. 

The primary concern will be the potential for moderate to heavy 
rainfall. Periods of heavy rainfall could be possible, especially 
Wednesday night, but most of the higher rainfall totals are 
expected to stay offshore. At this time, rainfall amounts are 
expected to be between 1 and 3 inches, and the risk for widespread
flooding is low. However, localized minor flooding of poor 
drainage areas and urban locations will be possible where heavier 
showers occur, along with possible rises at a few locations on 
area rivers.

The sfc low will move east of the area by Thursday, bringing a
cold front through the region. Rain chcs will taper off from west
to east through the day. By Friday, a secondary shortwave will 
travel southeast over the area, scouring out any leftover 
moisture and ushering in drier conditions for the weekend as a
trough becomes established aloft over the eastern CONUS. 
Expect cool mornings and mild afternoons with plenty of sunshine
through the weekend.


Sfc low pres will deepen over the western Gulf of Mexico tonight,
along the western end of a cold front. This will result in a 
strengthening east to northeast wind over the coastal waters
tonight into Tuesday. Exercise caution conditions will persist
overnight, then increase to a Small Craft Advisory Tuesday 
morning as winds strengthen to 20 to 25 KT. In addition, some 
gusts to gale force can be expected. The low pres system will
combine with a disturbance aloft to bring an increasing chc for
showers overnight, leading to more widespread showers along with a
few tstms during the day Tuesday.

Elevated east to northeast winds will continue through at least
Thursday as the sfc low remains over the western Gulf. By
Wednesday night into Thursday, a stronger trough aloft will move
east, helping to lift the low northeastward acrs the coastal
waters toward the north cntl Gulf coast. Winds will shift to the
northwest and strengthen in the wake of the system by Thursday, 
with drier air bringing an end to the rain. 



AEX  53  69  54  66 /  20  20  10  60 
LCH  57  66  60  67 /  60  70  30  70 
LFT  59  68  60  69 /  50  50  20  60 
BPT  57  65  60  67 /  70  70  40  80 


GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for GMZ450-

     Small Craft Exercise Caution until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ450-

     Small Craft Exercise Caution from 7 AM CDT Tuesday through 
     Tuesday evening for GMZ455.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution through Tuesday evening for GMZ452.