National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLCH Received: 2019-02-17 17:34 UTC


392 
FXUS64 KLCH 171734
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1134 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019


.AVIATION...A cold front will gradually move across the region
through the afternoon and evening veering winds north. IFR and
occasional LIFR ceilings may occur along with reduced vis in
showers or drizzle. Ceilings will improve tonight.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 950 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019/ 

UPDATE...
Light rain noted across the area from southeast Texas northeast 
into central and northeast Louisiana. Rains are associated with
a slow moving cold front... currently located south of 
Alexandria. Temperatures at Alexandria are in the mid 50s while 
Lake Charles is 70 degrees and Lafayette is checking in at 69 
degrees. As the front pushes south through the day this will see 
rains gradually ending and the threat of more areas of fog also 
ending. Current zones are fine for now.

DISCUSSION...

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 542 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019/ 

AVIATION...

BKN/OVC stratus will result in predominately IFR ceilings
continuing through mid morning before improving to MVFR as a
surface front moves across the area. Ahead of the front, areas of
fog will produce TEMPO visibility restrictions before being mixed
out by the approaching front. The front will result in showers 
and possibly a thunderstorm or two from 15Z through 18/00Z. S 
winds of 7-10 knots will gradually shift through the day to to N 
behind the front and increase to 10 knots this evening. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 344 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
Current warm front is situated across the area this morning with
low clouds and fog dominating the region. A cold front is inbound
moving across northeast Texas this morning. The cold front will
move across the area today bringing increased chances for showers
and possibly a few Thunderstorms. 

After the front passes, it is forecast to become stationary in the
Gulf tonight with a frontal wave developing along the front Monday
into Monday night. This will gradually increase showers and
thunderstorms Monday night at warm air rides over the cooler
surface air. Tuesday into Tuesday night the warm sector is
forecast to work into the eastern half of the forecast area. With
the increased instability and shear profiles SPC has already
highlighted the area for a marginal severe risk Tuesday into
Tuesday night. We will continue to monitor this. 

Wednesday into next weekend, the front will remain nearly
stationary across the area keeping the chances for showers and
thunderstorms high through the period. 

Marine...
Fog continues to develop over the shelf waters and move inland
along the immediate coast. After the front moves through later
today the fog will dissipate and there may need to be a small
craft advisory issued for tonight. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  42  59  45  60 /  10  10  70  80 
LCH  47  61  51  68 /  10  20  60  70 
LFT  49  61  52  71 /  40  20  60  60 
BPT  48  61  51  66 /   0  20  60  70 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION...05