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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLCH Received: 2018-08-14 23:37 UTC
684 FXUS64 KLCH 142337 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 637 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018 .DISCUSSION... For the 08/15/18 0000 UTC TAF package. && .AVIATION... VFR all sites early this evening, with some waning shower activity noted to the north of KLFT. High pressure at the SFC and aloft continues to prevail, and will yield mostly VFR through the forecast period. Have included a brief TEMPO MVFR for light VSBY reductions at KAEX based on latest guidance and persistence. Will evaluate evening guidance and Ob trends for possible addition of same at other terminals. 13 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018/ SYNOPSIS... Another hot and dry day underway as subsidence and dry air associated with high pres aloft remain over the region. LAPS precip water analysis and GOES TPW indicate drier air has shifted toward northern LA. Sfc high pres remains situated over the northern Gulf coast with light southerly winds acrs the area. Under partly cloudy skies, temperatures have warmed into the lower and middle 90s but with slightly lower dewpoints acrs the area, heat index values are staying near 100 degrees. 24 DISCUSSION... Aloft, low pres is noted over KS and this system and its associated trough will move east toward the MS valley through Wednesday. This will begin to weaken the ridge and allow for possibly a few more isolated showers and storms during the day Wednesday, but the best chc will remain acrs the usual area of south central LA. Through late in the week and into the weekend, a series of shortwaves in the westerlies will translate acrs the central CONUS, helping to maintain a weakness aloft over the region. Moisture will continue to increase with precip water near 1.7 to ~2 inches which is near to slightly abv climatological average for mid August. Thus a return to daily sctd convection is expected, with PoPs around 30 to 50 percent from Thursday through Sunday. Meanwhile, temperatures will remain near normal with lows in the middle 70s and highs in the lower 90s (but this will also be dependent on where showers or storms occur). By early next week, another shortwave is progged to dig a little deeper over the central CONUS, helping to push a cold front toward the area. Global models show some slight discrepancies regarding the evolution/timing, but in general expect a continuation of rain chcs into Monday/Tuesday as the system approaches. 24 MARINE... High pres will maintain a mostly light southerly flow and lower seas for the next several days. Shower and tstm chcs will increase late in the week and into the weekend as high pres aloft weakens. 24 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 73 95 72 94 / 10 10 10 20 LCH 76 92 75 92 / 10 20 10 30 LFT 76 94 76 92 / 10 20 10 40 BPT 76 92 76 92 / 10 20 10 30 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$