National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDIWX Received: 2018-02-14 19:58 UTC

FXUS63 KIWX 141958

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
258 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

Issued at 258 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

Warmer, more moist, air will stream northward into the region
through Thursday with chances for rain, drizzle and fog. Steady or
slowly rising temperatures expected tonight with highs Thursday
reaching the upper 40s to mid 50s. Locations southeast of Route 
24 on Thursday in east- central Indiana and northwest Ohio could 
see highs near 60 degrees. This will followed by a brief shot of 
cooler and drier weather Friday into Saturday. The pattern next 
week looks quite wet and mild. 


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

Warm air continues to surge north into the region with
temperatures generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s, even over
the snowpack. Not seeing a lot of impacts yet on the snowpack
despite the warmer temps as cloud cover has kept effect of the sun
limited, plus near/below freezing dewpoints also having an impact.
Thus fog hasn't been a major issue. As higher moisture continues
to filter in tonight into Thursday and inversion strengthens, do
anticipate expansion of fog across the area. Great threat for more
widespread and possibly dense fog will in areas where snowpack
exists. Fog thus far has remained in check but expect this to 
start to change as deeper moisture also surges north, as depicted 
by upper 30 to low 40 dewpoints into our southern counties and 
even near 50 down to southern Indiana. Temperatures tonight will 
generally be steady or slowly rise, allowing for fog to become a
larger concern, especially over the snowpack. Will keep mention of
areas of fog NW half or so with patchy dense fog as well. Dense
fog advisory could be needed in some areas but will defer to
evening/overnight shifts to assess. Otherwise, just some drizzle
or light rain expected in the wake of scattered shower activity
currently moving east out of the area. 

Fog will likely linger into Thursday morning before trough
approaches and brings widespread rain to the area during the
afternoon. Large temperature difference expected NW to SE due to
cold ground with highs in mid 40s NW to possibly flirting with 60
SE. Heaviest rainfall still expected in SE where upwards of one
half to three quarters of an inch falling vs maybe a few tenths


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

Rain will slowly exit the area Thursday evening, possible ending
as a mix of precip as colder air rushes back in behind the system.
Could be some slick spots late Thursday night into Friday morning
as wet roads could freeze up. 

Brief quiet and cool period will be in store Friday afternoon into
at least Saturday morning before a weak disturbance brings a
chance for some rain or snow. Not a big deal overall with only
slgt chance to chance pops in the forecast Sat afternoon into
evening. Quiet, but somewhat warmer conditions arrive Sat
night into Sunday before conditions turn much wetter as frontal
boundary sets up SW to NE somewhere across the southern Great
Lakes/upper Ohio Valley. Series of systems will track along it,
bringing good chances for rain, possibly heavy in some areas, as
Gulf of Mexico feed will be wide open. FLooding concerns will come
into play in many basins, with exact impacts unknown contingent on
where and how much rain occurs. Temperatures will vary greatly
with those on the cold side of the front likely in the 30s and 
40s and warm side into the 40s and 50s. 


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

Afternoon VFR conditions will deteriorate down to IFR and at times
LIFR during the period. Stratus/Fog currently south of terminals
will move north this afternoon dropping both visibility and 
ceilings over the terminals. Dense fog likely especially at KSBN
this evening with warm moist air rising over a significant
snowpack. Kept visibility higher at KFWA due to no snow depth as
of this morning observation. A gradual improvement over KFWA to
MVFR conditions by morning as surface winds increase allowing for
more mixing.




LONG TERM...Fisher

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