National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDIWX Received: 2018-02-14 11:18 UTC


125 
FXUS63 KIWX 141118
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
618 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 241 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

Warmer, more moist, air will stream northward into the region
later today into Thursday with chances for rain, drizzle and fog.
Highs will reach the 40s today and the upper 40s to mid 50s on
Thursday. Locations southeast of Route 24 on Thursday in east-
central Indiana and northwest Ohio could see highs near 60 degrees. 
This will followed by a brief shot of cooler and drier weather 
Friday into Saturday. The pattern next week looks occasionally wet 
and mild. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 241 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

A return flow of warmer/moist low level air over an extensive snow 
pack (at least northern half of forecast area) will overspread today 
into tonight. This will set the stage for a low stratus deck to 
build northward this period. Moisture profile overall looks 
relatively shallow suggesting more of a fog/drizzle scenario at best 
in most locations, save for areas southeast of US 24 this 
afternoon/evening as some slightly deeper moisture potentially 
supports more organized rain shower activity. A nice day otherwise 
today with temps trending above freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

A milder/active pattern looks to settle in for the second half of 
February as the local area becomes entrenched in moist wsw deep 
layered flow in advance of a mean Western US upper trough. Frontal 
wave still on tap for a period of rain Thursday aftn/eve and have 
held with high PoPs, though higher rainfall totals amid more robust 
moisture convergence expected south toward the Ohio River. Transient 
shot of cool/seasonable air then into Friday/Saturday in a split 
flow configuration. Will have to watch later Saturday/Saturday night 
for a period of lighter snow if trailing energy isn't sheared to 
pieces. Added chance PoPs given model trends, though no real 
confidence in any solutions at this point.

The early-mid portions of next week continue to be the most 
intriguing periods of the forecast as southeast US ridging amplifies 
in response to renewed Western US troughing. A high moisture GOM 
airmass will interact with a developing baroclinic zone in between 
these features from the Southern Plains northeast into the Ohio 
Valley and Great Lakes. Slow moving nature and ample moisture into 
the boundary does hint at a heavy rain/flooding threat somewhere 
across the Midwest/Great Lakes, though details (location/timing of
heavier QPF) obviously unknown at this fcst range. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 613 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

Patchy BR around the region this morning with a few isolated
locations with IFR/LIFR fog. Expect most of this to dissipate this
morning with sunshine and mixing. Better low level moisture surge
arrives mid afternoon with increased contribution from melting 
snowpack. This should allow widespread stratus and fog to expand 
northward with deteriorating flight conditions late afternoon and 
through tonight with IFR/LIFR becoming widespread. Fog expected 
to be most dense closer to KSBN with deeper snowpack versus KFWA 
with no snowpack. Visibilities tonight expected to drop to one 
quarter mile or less at KSBN but was a little more optimistic at 
KFWA due to lack of melting snow. Hires guidance has been rather 
consistent through the night showing this pattern evolution.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Lashley


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