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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDIWX Received: 2018-02-14 05:42 UTC

FXUS63 KIWX 140542

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1242 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

Issued at 302 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2018

Much warmer air will continue to overspread the region into
Thursday, along with increasing chances for rain, drizzle and 
fog. This will be followed by a briefly cooler but dry weather 
period for Friday and Saturday. 


Issued at 845 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2018

Some light precip in the form of some very light sleet/sprinkles
has been observed across along and east of I-69 this evening. This
precip was in association with axis of strong isentropic lift.
Highly sheared upper wave tracking across the Great Lakes add
accompanying proximity to right entrance region of 120 knot upper
jet have also aided in forcing this evening. Eastward translation
of this upper wave will allow axis of stronger warm advection to 
also shift eastward across OH/western PA late this evening. This 
will bring an end to light precip (trace amounts) after 03Z 
across the far southeast. Primarily westerly low level flow 
remainder of night should keep bulk of low clouds south across the
Lower Ohio Valley. Some patchy fog not completely out of the 
question across far north/northwest where some melting of snowpack
has occurred today, but as mentioned in previous discussion, dry 
nature of low level airmass should largely limit significant fog 
potential tonight.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2018

Plenty of sunshine was allowing temperatures to climb into the 
upper 20s to middle 30s, warmest where snowpack is non existent 
(generally along/south of a Monticello to Peru to Lima line.

Area of stratus was working north through central Indiana and Ohio 
and will likely move into southern areas towards evening. Mid clouds 
also streaming in from the west. The cloud cover and increasing 
humidity raises challenges in potential of more widespread stratus 
and fog, especially on Weds into Weds eve as dewpoints climb above 
freezing and pace of melting increases somewhat. Some drizzle/light
rain could materialize as limited lift begins to arrive ahead of 
the first rain maker arriving for the start of the long term.

In terms of temperatures, lows will fall back into the middle to 
upper 20s, with highs Wednesday climbing above freezing and 
likely well into the 40s in most areas outside of the deeper snow
pack. Guidance would suggest gridded highs are too high (by a few
degrees) over the snowpack, but despite the cloud cover do think 
we will end up somewhat warmer and will leave previous forecast 

Hydro concerns will be handled in a separate portion of the 


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 346 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2018

Depth of warm air and moisture will increase into Thursday night
with subsequent ramp up in pops as moderate amplitude trough moves
quickly out of Kansas Thursday morning and into the Ohio Valley 
Thurs ngt and Friday. Most significant QPF would still appear to 
well southeast of the area, but everyone should still see between 
a tenth to nearly a half inch with highest amounts SE. Impacts 
hydro wise discussed below. 

High pressure will build in across the area by Friday night,
persisting into early Sunday bringing dry conditions. Much more 
significant trough will dig into the Four Corners region to allow 
for a rapid return flow out of the Gulf that will set the stage 
for much warmer temperatures and an extended period of 
precipitation, mainly in the form of rain. Challenge will be how 
how long Bermuda high will be able to hold back the main trough 
ejection. Luckily, greatest precip chances are outside the 
forecast period, but precip chances exist starting late Saturday
night and especially Monday and Tuesday. 


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1237 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

VFR to start the period with dry low levels. Fog and stratus
expected later on Wednesday once warming begins and melting
snowpack adds some moisture to low levels. Hires guidance suggest
MVFR to IFR conditions in the late afternoon and evening. Trended
terminals more pessimistic after 20z with further reductions 
likely needed but questions at this time on timing of fog and 
stratus development and advection into terminals from the south.


Issued at 346 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2018

Moisture content of the snowpack across the area varies greatly
with even lower snow depths holding a fair amount of water (5 
inch snow depth here with just over 9 tenths liquid). Getting a 
few water eq readings in the deeper snow pack of 1.5 to possibly 
as much as 2 inches of water. Expecting significant 
loss/elimination of snowpack in areas currently under 6 inches of 
snow by Thursday and likely at least further compaction of 
snowpack further northwest. Always tricky as to exactly how much 
water will release and expected QPF from Thurs ngt rainfall of 
tenth to quarter inch will just add to the content. In the SE QPF 
will approach a half inch and maybe a touch more by Friday. At 
this point, expecting any river response to be limited to action 
stage with "flashier" sites possibly reaching minor flood stage 
for a period. 

With colder temps moving back in for a few days, think any 
release will be slowed. Return to warmer conditions will get rid
of any further snow pack late in the weekend into next week. To
further complicate things, extended period of rainfall is in store
with PWATS increasing to well over an inch across the area with
each round of rain in the later part of the forecast period and
beyond likely to become heavier to set the stage for more
significant flooding concerns. 




SHORT TERM...Fisher 
LONG TERM...Fisher 

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