National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDIWX Received: 2018-02-13 04:35 UTC

FXUS63 KIWX 130435

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1135 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2018

Issued at 1135 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2018

High pressure will provide fair weather through Tuesday. Morning lows
will be in the single digits below zero to single digits above 
zero, coldest over the deeper snowpack. Much warmer air will 
overspread the region Wednesday and Thursday, along with 
increasing chances for rain, drizzle and fog. This will be 
followed by a briefly cooler but dry weather period for Friday 
and Saturday.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Tuesday) 
Issued at 200 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2018

Sfc ridge overhead will retreat ewd into the wrn Atlantic by Tue 
evening. Another night of very cold temps expected across nrn zones 
where deep snowpack and decoupling winds allow for strong 
radiational cooling. Have undercut guidance substantially again with 
some below zero mins likely locally.

Otherwise emerging low level warm advection quick to ramp up Tue 
aftn ahead of robust sfc low pressure through srn Canada. Rebounding 
temps will be tempered somewhat by increasing mid clouds through the 
aftn. However mid-upr 30s look quite attainable.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2018

Active/mild wx pattern this period. Deep Hudson Bay centered upper 
low and associate broad upper trough extending swd into the ern US 
breaking down quickly. Thus developing zonal flow aloft and strong 
thermal ridging yields mild temps Wed-Thu along with an increasing 
chance of rain.

Primary features of note remains with progressive nrn stream 
sw disturbance that sharply amplifies through the cntrl US Thu 
followed by another toward late Sun. Lead disturbance tracking had 
tightened, now looking to pass overhead Thu aftn with potential 
significant rainfall indicated well south toward the OH river where 
more substantial return low level theta-e ridge develops. 

Brief but shallow post frontal cold advection wing follows 
in wake of this system Fri before moderating again Sat-Sun ahead of 
next system headed a bit further east through the OH valley late 
Sun into Mon. Another potentially significant rain event taking 
shape early next week although considerable guidance variability 
exists with placement of active/stalled frontal zone. This will 
likely be constrained farther south invof the OH river valley. 
Nevertheless a return to mild temps expected here Sun-Mon.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2018

High pressure moving eastward from the Upper Great Lakes to Lower
will assure VFR conditions through the forecast period across
northern Indiana.





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