National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDIWX Received: 2017-12-18 02:33 UTC


579 
FXUS63 KIWX 180233
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
933 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 415 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2017

Clouds will persist overnight with lows in the lower to middle 
30s. There will be a couple of chances for light rain, first this 
evening, mainly along and south of route 30, and then again late 
tonight into Monday morning across the entire region, along with 
some patchy fog and drizzle. It will dry out for Monday afternoon 
with highs into the middle to upper 40s. For the rest of the week,
dry and mild conditions persist, until a frontal system likely 
brings rain on Friday. Much colder air will filter in behind the 
front for the holiday weekend, along with the potential for lake 
effect snow. 

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 926 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2017

Warm front has pushed north to near the IN/MI border and so have
moved time of areas of fog earlier by a few hours. Have also kept
highest pops for drizzle along front. Temperatures and dew points
also were adjusted higher to fit current obs and increased time 
of arrival of higher Ts and Tds heading into Monday morning. Will 
be monitoring for faster development of patchy dense fog by Monday
morning near current snow pack as well with faster advection of 
higher dew points from the south.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 414 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2017

Split flow pattern with splitting/minoring lead waves in advance of 
stronger highly positive tilted northern stream wave to provide a 
few very light rainfall events in near term. First minored wave to 
orphan later this evening though southeast quarter followed by 
several hour lull until leftmost vorticity split swept through 
northwestern cwa amid deeper orphaned low level moisture column. 
Stronger 925-850 mean layer flow on order of 25-30 kts across 
northern tier CWA late tonight/Mon am should bode more favorable for 
stratus formation/depth over br production and relegate fog mention 
to no stronger than areas of br 10-15 UTC. Eastward sweep of trof 
axis for dry conditions/higher ceilings and more veered/surface 
based warm air advection flow to support temps a few degrees higher 
over prior forecast, and inline with latest trend. 

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 414 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2017

Southern Baja/northern Mexico cyclone ejects and supports midweek
cyclogenesis tracked well south of CWA to afford a long duration 
dry/mild period. Thereafter amplification of flow regime amid 
western conus trof/130W ridge. Gradual eastward shift portends to 
latter part of the week sern CO cyclogenesis for Dy6 rain event 
followed by sharply colder air/lake effect event for holiday 
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2017

VFR conditions to deteriorate at both sites through the next 6 to
12 hours as deeper moisture and warmer temperatures combined with
a weak system all bring an extended period of IFR conditions from
combination of cigs and visibilities. High confidence in
development of IFR stratus and fog later tonight. Potential for
LIFR conditions more conditional on degree of mixing in lower
levels. Light winds should increase the potential for LIFR, but
confidence not high enough at this point to drop further.
Will monitor through the evening. 

System will exit with improving conditions later on Monday. 


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 4 PM EST Tuesday for 
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Roller
SYNOPSIS...Murphy
SHORT TERM...Murphy 
LONG TERM...Murphy 
AVIATION...Fisher


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