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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDIWX Received: 2017-09-18 23:27 UTC
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666 FXUS63 KIWX 182327 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 727 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 716 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 A weak cold front will linger over north central Indiana and Ohio this evening keeping a slight chance for showers and an isolated thunderstorm in the forecast. A stronger system will approach overnight into Tuesday and will likely bring more widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms to much of the region. High pressure then moves back in for Wednesday through the weekend with dry conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures well into the 80s. && .SHORT TERM...(Late This Afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 227 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 A weak front has stalled out just south of US 24 this afternoon and will remain in place into this evening. There may be just enough diurnal heating/instability to pop a few showers/storms here, though weak convergence/forcing should limit coverage to iso-sct at best. Warm and dry otherwise into this evening on the southern fringe of high pressure shifting east through the Western/Northern Great Lakes. Rain chances increase later tonight into Tuesday morning as mid level shortwave over the Central Plains lifts northeast through the OH Valley and Great Lakes. Showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder (thanks to some elevated instability) should tend to focus along the returning/aforementioned frontal zone under weak upper divergence/height falls aloft. Bumped up QPF/PoPs a bit during this time across the entire forecast area given good moisture return and modest forcing. Shower coverage should wane from sw to ne later in the morning/early afternoon in wake of the upper wave and deeper moisture. However, similar to today, there could be some iso-sct redevelopment during the afternoon near the leftover frontal boundary as any filtered sunshine allows boundary layer to become at least marginally unstable. && .LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 227 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 A 588 dm plus upper ridge will build over the region mid week through next weekend supporting unseasonably warm and mainly dry conditions. The only low chance for showers appears to be later Wednesday night/early Thursday into nw IN/sw Lower MI as a decaying line of showers attempts to survive east into the building ridge. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening) Issued at 716 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 VFR conditions this evening but an upper level wave will bring showers and an isolated tsra back into the region overnight into Tuesday. Tsra chances too small to include at this time for point forecasts but could see introduction with 06z TAFs as precipitation nears and radar/lightning trends dictate when and where best chances will occur. Cigs and vis expected to drop into MVFR range after 06z with IFR a good possibility as rain arrives after 09z. Conditions expected to slowly improve Tuesday afternoon with return to VFR. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lashley SHORT TERM...Steinwedel LONG TERM...Steinwedel AVIATION...Lashley Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana