National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDIWX Received: 2017-08-23 17:30 UTC


381 
FXUS63 KIWX 231730
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
130 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Primarily fair weather will continue through the weekend as high 
pressure dominates the region. Expect a slight chance of rain 
showers on Lake Michigan early Thursday, but overall conditions will 
be dry. High temperatures will be in the 70's. Lows will be chilly, 
ranging from the upper 40's to the 50's. Life-threatening waves and 
currents are expected on Lake Michigan beaches through this evening. 
Those heading to the beach should stay out of the water, and avoid 
walking out onto piers and breakwalls. Conditions will subside later 
tonight into Thursday. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 246 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

High pressure will begin to take control of the region today with
cooler and much less humid conditions. Enough residual moisture 
will exist to allow for cu field to pop late morning into this 
afternoon, but dry conditions will remain. Highs will be in the 
lower to middle 70s with locations along the lakeshore barely 
touching 70 with the NW flow off the lake. 

Skies will clear out for most locations for tonight. However, 
approaching disturbance out of Minnesota will bring enough moisture 
and cold air aloft to allow for some lake effect cloud cover. Still 
not expecting much more than partly cloudy skies closer to the 
lake. 

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Upper level disturbance will ride the edge of the ridge bringing 
increased clouds to much of the area, especially Thursday morning. 
Cold air aloft will allow for a pocket of steep mid level lapse 
rates (6.5-7 C/KM) which could stir up a few light showers near the 
lakeshore areas as well as isolated waterspouts over the nearshore 
waters. Will leave forecast dry for the time being given, but may 
need to introduce at least some slgt chc pops in Berrien/LaPorte 
counties. Will be a raw day by late August standards with some 
locations not even getting close to 70, especially closer to the 
lake. 

Quiet conditions then settle in through the bulk of the period with 
the next trough beginning to edge towards the area from the west 
Mon/Tues. All models shows spurious QPF from any number of factors 
over the area. Confidence remains low if pops will even workout, 
especially Monday. Will go ahead and hold onto pops for Mon-Tues 
with diminishing trend Monday night with loss of daytime heating. 
Exact impacts from what is expected to be remnants of Harvey plus 
potential east coast tropical system remain to be seen. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

High pressure in place over the Great Lakes region will keep 
conditions VFR at the TAF Sites. Daytime cumulus are developing 
already this afternoon per visible satellite, with scattered to 
broken ceilings at 4-5Kft reported by observations. Expect FEW with 
the lake breeze suppressing cloud development at KSBN this 
afternoon, and providing gusty winds, but models continue to hint at 
lake enhancement overnight. Some of the models even generate 
precipitation, but confidence is lower in this occurring. Left the 
precipitation out for at this point, but did bring in a broken 
ceiling Thursday morning to account for the lake enhancement. Winds 
will gradually die down after sunset this evening and through 
Thursday.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for INZ003.

MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM EDT this evening for MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...Fisher 
LONG TERM...Fisher 
AVIATION...MCD


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