National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDIWX Received: 2017-08-23 06:50 UTC


580 
FXUS63 KIWX 230650
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
250 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Cooler and less humid conditions will prevail through the next
several days across the region. Highs today will be in the middle
to upper 70s and lows tonight in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Highs
may struggle to get above 70 in some areas on Thursday. The next
chance for any measurable precipitation doesn't arrive till 
possibly Monday

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 246 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

High pressure will begin to take control of the region today with
cooler and much less humid conditions. Enough residual moisture 
will exist to allow for cu field to pop late morning into this 
afternoon, but dry conditions will remain. Highs will be in the 
lower to middle 70s with locations along the lakeshore barely 
touching 70 with the NW flow off the lake. 

Skies will clear out for most locations for tonight. However, 
approaching disturbance out of Minnesota will bring enough moisture 
and cold air aloft to allow for some lake effect cloud cover. Still 
not expecting much more than partly cloudy skies closer to the 
lake. 

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Upper level disturbance will ride the edge of the ridge bringing 
increased clouds to much of the area, especially Thursday morning. 
Cold air aloft will allow for a pocket of steep mid level lapse 
rates (6.5-7 C/KM) which could stir up a few light showers near the 
lakeshore areas as well as isolated waterspouts over the nearshore 
waters. Will leave forecast dry for the time being given, but may 
need to introduce at least some slgt chc pops in Berrien/LaPorte 
counties. Will be a raw day by late August standards with some 
locations not even getting close to 70, especially closer to the 
lake. 

Quiet conditions then settle in through the bulk of the period with 
the next trough beginning to edge towards the area from the west 
Mon/Tues. All models shows spurious QPF from any number of factors 
over the area. Confidence remains low if pops will even workout, 
especially Monday. Will go ahead and hold onto pops for Mon-Tues 
with diminishing trend Monday night with loss of daytime heating. 
Exact impacts from what is expected to be remnants of Harvey plus 
potential east coast tropical system remain to be seen. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 114 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

VFR conditions expected through the period. Patchy strato cu at 
base of inversion aloft continuing over nrn IN/swrn MI attm and
may persist overnight. Radiational cooling will saturate near sfc
layer early this morning but moisture very shallow, so no vsby
restrictions fcst. Sufficient lingering low level
moisture/instability for sct cu at fwa later today, while areas 
near Lake Michigan should be a little more stable resulting in skc
at sbn. 


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for INZ003.

MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Fisher
SHORT TERM...Fisher 
LONG TERM...Fisher 
AVIATION...JT


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