National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDIWX Received: 2017-08-13 08:07 UTC


448 
FXUS63 KIWX 130807
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
407 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 357 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

High pressure over the Midwest will move slowly east over the next 
couple of days providing fair weather. Generally dry weather will 
continue into Tuesday, however, a weak frontal boundary will move 
south across Michigan and into Indiana and Ohio by Tuesday which 
could cause an isolated shower in our area. There is a good chance 
of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday as a low 
pressure system moves northeast from the Plains across the Great 
Lakes. High pressure will build in behind this system providing fair 
weather Friday. Temperatures will remain a bit below normal today, 
but should be at or slightly above normal during the work week with
highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 357 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

High pressure will move across the area today providing mostly sunny 
skies. Wk gradient but strong insolation should provide sufficient 
mixing to allow temps to recover from early morning lows in the 
lower 50s to afternoon highs near 80. As the high pressure system 
moves east of our area tonight, wk waa may sustain patchy 
cu/strato cu overnight as light return flow develops. Temps will 
not be as cool as this morning with lows in the mid-upr 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 357 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Upr low over ND expected to transition to an open shrtwv as it 
moves east into grtlks and srn periphery of circulation 
associated with deep upr low over nrn Quebec. This system will 
provide some weak forcing across our area as it moves through the 
wrn grtlks on Monday. GFS has been fairly consistent for last few 
runs on suggesting potential for isolated showers Monday. However,
given expected wk instability/forcing leaned toward NAM/ECMWF and
kept fcst dry. Combination of this shrtwv movg across the grtlks 
and another shrtwv dropping se down backside of nrn Quebec low 
will cause a wk backdoor front to drop slowly south across MI and 
into IN/OH. Although instability should increase as some moisture 
pooling occurs along the boundary, it still should be weak at best
(less than 1000j/kg) and expect only an isolated shower at most 
in our area. 

Shrtwv off the Pacific NW coast movg east along srn periphery of an 
upr low off nrn BC coast this morning will move across the Plains 
Wed and lift ne across the upr Grtlks Thu. This will strengthen the 
lingering sfc boundary over our area Wed and cause it to lift ne 
as a warm front and bring a better chc for deep convection. 
Likewise, a good chc of thunderstorms Thu as the cdfnt associated 
with this system moves through. Dry and a bit cooler wx expected 
Fri as high pressure builds in behind this system. As the high 
moves east Sat, low level waa/return flow and wk shrtwv movg 
through broadly cyclonic mid level flow beneath central Canada 
closed low may cause showers to move back into the area. Temps 
through the work week should be at or a bit above normal with 
highs generally in the 80s and lows in the 60s. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1224 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Some patchy ground fog is likely by daybreak. Kept the mention of
3SM BR at Ft Wayne, but limited the duration according to
conditional climatology. The fog will mix out rather quickly with
VFR conditions prevailing. 

Otherwise VFR conditions prevail. 


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...Skipper


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