National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDIWX Received: 2017-08-12 18:29 UTC


109 
FXUS63 KIWX 121829
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
229 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017

High pressure will build into the Great Lakes tonight and linger 
through early next week providing fair weather. Temperatures will 
be cooler than normal over the weekend, with a slow warming trend 
early next week. The high will move to our east by the middle of 
next week allowing moist southerly flow to return. A low pressure 
system moving east from the plains will interact with this 
moisture providing a good chance for showers and thunderstorms 
around Wednesday night or Thursday. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 219 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Shortwave dropping south through the flow stirring up some 
showers across eastern portions of Michigan. HRRR suggests as this
drops into mainly NE areas some isolated showers could form. 
Given trends updated earlier for token 20 pop for a few hours 
before rapid decrease in pops. Clearing skies and diminishing 
winds may set the stage for some patchy fog overnight, but 
boundary layer moisture may be low enough to keep fog from 
developing. Will punt to eve shift to monitor trends. 

No sensible weather concerns Sunday with little more than fair
weather cu mainly SE during peak heating. Below normal
temperatures will persist with highs in the middle to upper 70s. 

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 219 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Dry weather to persist through at least Tuesday night with models
still varying on exact timing of series of waves starting as early
as Weds afternoon into Friday. Highest pops still appear to be in
the Wed ngt/Thurs window, but somewhat skeptical if likely pops
will work out. Have maintained general consensus for now.
Temperatures will head back towards more normal or somewhat above
normal levels with increasing humidity towards the second half of
the week. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 129 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Moisture provided by a trough to the east as well as northwest
winds allows a few showers to be around the region this afternoon
ahead of an incoming high pressure system. Subsidence and dry air
should keep the bulk of the showers at a minimum during peak 
heating. Overnight, light and variable winds and sfc moisture 
especially near crops and area lakes may be able to create more 
fog/BR. The most likely TAF site to see fog/BR would be FWA while 
SBN appears too dry.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for INZ003.

MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT/Fisher
SHORT TERM...Fisher 
LONG TERM...Fisher 
AVIATION...Roller


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