National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDIWX Received: 2017-08-12 17:40 UTC

FXUS63 KIWX 121740

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
140 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Issued at 346 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Low pressure will move northeast away from the Great Lakes today.
Generally fair weather is expected in its wake, though isolated 
showers are possible, mainly north of the Toll Road. High pressure
will build into the Great Lakes tonight and linger through early 
next week providing fair weather. Temperatures will be cooler 
than normal over the weekend, with a slow warming trend early 
next week. The high will move to our east by the middle of next 
week allowing moist southerly flow to return. A low pressure 
system moving east from the plains will interact with this 
moisture providing a good chance for showers and thunderstorms 
around Wednesday night or Thursday. 


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 346 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Upr level trof across nrn MI/WI will move se across the wrn 
Grtlks today. Sufficient lingering low level moisture/instability
expected for a few showers as this system approaches/moves 
through, especially downwind of Lake Michigan where wk lake 
induced instability should enhance shower intensity/coverage. 
Sufficient sunshine and N-NW gradient mixing should allow temps to
reach the m-u70s this aftn. Winds should have some lake breeze 
enhancement as well allowing waves in the NSH/SRF zones build to 
at or above 4ft resulting in SCA/dangerous swimming conditions on
Lake MI.

High pressure will build into the area tonight allowing skies
to clear and winds to diminish. Strong radiational cooling should
allow temps to fall into the l-m50s. Patchy fog psbl in rural low
lying areas late as boundary layer decouples but held off adding 
to fcst attm. 


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 346 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017

High pressure expected to linger over the Grtlks Sunday-Tuesday. 
Upr low over ne MT expected to shear out and move east across the 
Grtlks Mon-Tue but combination of wk forcing and dry airmass 
should prevent any showers from developing in our area. Temps 
will be on a slow warming trend as airmass slowly modifies. Upr 
level ridging will move across the area Tue ngt-Wed ahead of 
rather strong shrtwv movg east from the plains. This system will 
draw gulf moisture north into our area ahead of it which should 
result in widespread showers as it moves through. Models still 
have some timing differences but appears main impact will be Wed 
ngt and/or Thu. Medium range models in decent agreement that 
another shrtwv will follow quickly behind Thursday's as zonal flow 
begins to amplify a bit. However, sgfnt spread in timing/strength 
of this system, so for now just a low chc of showers fcst. 


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 129 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Moisture provided by a trough to the east as well as northwest
winds allows a few showers to be around the region this afternoon
ahead of an incoming high pressure system. Subsidence and dry air
should keep the bulk of the showers at a minimum during peak 
heating. Overnight, light and variable winds and sfc moisture 
especially near crops and area lakes may be able to create more 
fog/BR. The most likely TAF site to see fog/BR would be FWA while 
SBN appears too dry.


IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for INZ003.

MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for MIZ077.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046.




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