National Weather Service Raw Text Product

911 
FXUS61 KILN 120845
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
345 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Wintry mix Wednesday morning will eventually transition to
rainfall during the day. However, freezing rain is possible for
some of our northwestern counties today and tonight as they 
will remain on the cooler side of the surface low. Low pressure
exits early Thursday morning, resulting in drier conditions 
through the end of the work week. Another low pressure system 
will usher in mostly rain on Saturday, followed by a transition
to snow Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The Winter Weather Advisory has been extended until 11AM this
morning. 850mb convergence axis has aligned itself right 
through the ILN fa early this morning, resulting in a prolonged 
period of snowfall. Radar continues to display snow showers 
redeveloping from the southwest as ample moisture clashes with 
the low level convergence axis. Additionally, this moisture 
currently remains in the DGZ for most of our counties, so we 
could see additional snow accumulations up to an inch in spots. 
However, warmer air will begin to intrude the lowest few 
thousand feet of the atmosphere over the next couple of hours, 
pushing the lift/moisture out of the DGZ. This loss of ice 
nucleation will lead to patchy freezing rain/drizzle through the
mid-morning hours where precip lingers, primarily for portions 
of southern OH/northern KY. While roads will most likely be 
treated, be aware that some icy spots could develop, especially 
on elevated surfaces.

Coverage in pcpn will be at a minimum around the late
morning/early afternoon hours today. By the mid to late 
afternoon, coverage in precip will really begin to increase from
the south as a strong low pressure system begins its northern 
track from the Tennessee Valley. Temperatures will remain in the
30s to lower 40s across our CWA during the daytime hours, 
increasing further tonight. However, our far northwestern 
counties may remain at or just below the freezing mark, 
resulting in some freezing rain accumulations. Most of the 
freezing rain will likely be on elevated surfaces, but a few icy
spots may develop.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Low pressure center will continue to shift northward tonight and
track right through our fa. As the center of the low continues
to approach us, WAA will result in non-diurnal temps tonight.
The warmest temperatures will actually occur after midnight,
increasing into the middle to upper 40s in portions of central
OH down into north-central KY. Temperatures in our far 
northwestern counties on the other hand will remain fairly
unchanged, hovering right around the freezing mark. Mercer
County still has the best chance for the highest ice amounts,
near 0.10". The gradient in ice accumulation quickly decreases 
through the next tier of counties to the south and east, but 
will have to monitor temperature trends for potential changes in
overall ice amounts.

Precipitation will gradually get shunted eastward tonight,
beginning shortly after midnight around the Tristate and areas
north. Surface temperatures will finally begin to decrease 
early Thursday morning behind the cold front, with dry
conditions returning by daybreak. Surface high pressure will
nudge in from the west, eroding some of the clouds by the
afternoon hours. The warmest temperatures on Thursday will be
during the early morning hours, especially for locations SE of
I-71 as CAA ensues. 

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will build into the Ohio Valley Thursday 
night and then slide off to the east through the day on Friday. With 
winds becoming light and clearing skies, temperatures Thursday 
night will be seasonably cold with lows in the 10 to 15 degree 
range. In developing return flow through the day on Friday, 
temperatures will begin to rebound somewhat with daytime highs in 
the 30s.  

A mid and upper level trough will pivot east across the central to 
eastern CONUS through the weekend. In developing southwest flow 
ahead of this, some isentropically induced pcpn will develop/spread 
into our area Friday night with widespread pcpn then continuing 
through the day Saturday and into Saturday night as a developing 
surface low lifts northeast across the Ohio Valley. Thermal 
profiles across our north will initially support snow and/or a rain 
snow mix Friday night before we warm enough through the day on 
Saturday to transition over to mainly all rain. Temperatures 
on Saturday will range from the upper 30s far north to the lower 50s 
in our far south. 

With a strengthening 50-60 knot 850 mb jet nosing up into the mid 
Ohio Valley, good moisture advection will occur through the day on 
Saturday and into Saturday night with PWs pushing well over an inch 
across much of our area. As a result, locally heavy rainfall will be 
possible with both the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means giving 
probabilities in excess of 50 to 60 percent of greater than 
2 inches of rainfall into our southeast Saturday into Saturday 
night. This would be enough to lead to flooding concerns, 
especially for areas along and southeast of the I-71 corridor. 

As the low lifts off to our northeast, some cooler air will 
be pulled in behind it later Saturday night and through the 
day on Sunday. This will allow for the rain to mix with and 
then change over to snow from the northwest before ending through 
the day on Sunday. Some light snow accumulations will be possible, 
especially across northern portions of our area. In good CAA, 
temperatures will fall off through the day on Sunday with afternoon 
readings ranging from the mid 20s northwest to the lower 30s in our 
southeast. 

An unseasonably cold surface high pressure system will build 
southeast into the region Monday into Tuesday This will lead to 
mainly dry conditions. Daytime highs on Monday and Tuesday will only 
range from the upper teens in the far north to around 30 degrees 
across our south. 

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Strong convergence has led to a longer period of snowfall 
across the region. Expect periods of light to moderate snowfall
to continue, especially across ILN and KCVG/KLUK. There is a 
sharp gradient between VFR/IFR CIGs, which is currently aligned 
just SE of KILN. As we progress into the early morning hours, 
this gradient will shift northwards. A later onset of IFR CIGs 
is expected for our northern terminals, but confidence is high 
in this occurrence on Wednesday. 

Patchy -FZRA/FZDZ is possible tonight, mainly across KCVG/KLUK
and perhaps KILN. This would mainly be after 09z and continue
through the mid-morning hours before surface temperatures rise
above freezing. 

Probabilities are high in IFR CIGs developing, but there is a
pretty strong signal for LIFR to develop later in the day as
well. This is in response to a surface low that will track right
through the Ohio Valley. In addition to the lowering CIGs,
periods of rainfall can be expected Wednesday afternoon/evening,
becoming more scattered overnight. Vsbys will likely reduce to
MVFR, with IFR possible based on latest guidance. 

Surface winds will gradually shift towards the southeast today,
remaining around 10 kts. Eventually, a cold front will move
through Wednesday night and result in a shift to the northwest
(highlighted in extended KCVG taf).

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR conditions are expected through Thursday,
and again from Saturday through Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for 
     OHZ063>065-071>074-077>082-088.
     Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 4 AM EST Thursday 
     for OHZ026-034-035-042>044.
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for 
     KYZ089>100.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for 
     INZ073>075-080.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Clark
NEAR TERM...Clark
SHORT TERM...Clark
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Clark