National Weather Service Raw Text Product

508 
FXUS64 KHUN 191401
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
901 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 901 CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A cluster of prefrontal showers with embedded thunder continues to
push southeastward into central Alabama. This area which produced
a severe thunderstorm this morning, continues to weaken. Cullman 
County could get clipped on the southern extent of the county by 
the remaining thunderstorm in this cluster but severe thresholds 
look unlikely. Attention will then turn to a second round of 
activity that is expected to initialize along a sfc cold front 
that is currently entering our far western zones once the 
atmosphere destabilizes. Showers should begin to pop along this 
boundary around noon for our western counties with higher chances 
for storms from Huntsville south and east as the front continues 
eastward interacting with an area of 1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE. 
Shear values are not impressive today but with sufficient 
instability and decent mid-level lapse rates expecting strong wind
gusts, brief heavy downpours, and marginally severe hail to be 
the main concerns with storms that develop this afternoon. Timing 
for storms looks to be between 2 PM-6 PM this evening. Chances for
precip will exit as cold front exits to the southeast this 
evening. High temps will top out in the mid to upper 70s this 
afternoon with dewpoints in the 60s under partly to mostly cloudy
skies. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

The cold front is forecast to push through the TN Valley fully 
this evening as it tracks toward the Gulf Coast. Despite drier 
mid-level air surging in behind the front, some lower level 
moisture will linger through tonight. Dew points in the 40s move 
in Saturday morning, but before then, the forecast will need to 
keep track of some isentropic upglide that could lead to lingering
drizzle overnight. Zonal flow persists aloft and weak surface 
high pressure starts seeping from Canada down to the southern 
Plains. Just ahead of this surface high, a weak upper-level 
shortwave trough will traverse the Southern US states. Another 
round of showers with a few thunderstorms (40-60% chance) will 
move into the area Saturday afternoon and exit the region Sunday 
afternoon. 

While some cold air advection behind the front will cause high
temperatures on Saturday to peak in the mid 60s to low 70s, some
areas may struggle to get above 60 on Sunday! Overnight lows drop
to the 40s Saturday night and then potentially the upper 30s
Sunday night as the modified Canadian air mass settles over the
Lower Mississippi Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Thursday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

For how volatile late-April can be for our area, next week looks 
pretty pleasant, relatively speaking. Surface high pressure will 
keep higher rain chances at bay and high temperatures in the 
mid-70s. A few things to monitor will be a shortwave trough 
digging into the Great Lakes region with an attendant surface low 
that may drag a cold front into the South. For now, low rain 
chances (20-30%) are in the forecast for late Tuesday into 
Wednesday. The greatest potential for rain with this system will 
stay farther north, but that could change if the trough digs 
farther south. The second feature to watch is a longwave trough 
that will set up over the Western US late next week. This may lead
to ridging and warmer temperatures over the Southeast in addition
to sending several impulses through the area, which would lead to
multiple periods of showers and thunderstorms next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

An area of severe storms is moving south of MSL this morning and
should miss HSV. Additional development along this segment will be
the primary convective concern for both terminals today. Low
chance (<20%) of additional storms impacting both terminals this
afternoon, with higher confidence east of both terminals. IFR to
low end MVFR ceilings persist with a stratus deck for today before
gradually lifting to MVFR this evening and VFR late tonight. There
is a low chance for light rain/drizzle this evening, but something
to be mindful of, as lower ceilings may continue longer than
forecast.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KG
SHORT TERM....30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30