National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDHGX Received: 2019-03-16 04:47 UTC

FXUS64 KHGX 160447

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1147 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019

Updated aviation discussion.


VFR through the period. Mid and high deck shifts south...but
then lifts back north so will see variable mid and high deck for
the inland TAF sites. Elevated convection keeps going in waves for
coastal sites...isolated at times...better coverage other times as
disturbances lift NE along fast upper flow. Difficult to time as
models struggling with subtle features. LBX and GLS should be most
impacted with mainly isolated in the vicinity...heavier more
widespread offshore. Will likely see these isolated showers right
near the coast tonight and tomorrow. No visibility restriction
though as rain falling through deep dry layer. 18


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 929 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019/ 

Temperatures as of 9 PM were in the mid to upper 50s across SE 
TX, with dewpoints in the low 30s. Radar imagery is continuing to 
show some development of showers and some isolated thunderstorms 
over our coastal counties, as well as over the Gulf waters. 
Anticipate development should be winding down over the next hour 
or so, as drier more subsident air settles in through the 
overnight hours. By early morning, showers look to develop across
the Gulf waters and isolated thunder will again be possible. 
Keeping PoPs highest along the coast, where the best mid-layer 
frontogenesis and moisture should pool. Otherwise, only minor 
tweaks to the forecast in tonight's update to account for trends 
in observations.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019/ 

Rounds of showers continue as disturbances move up from the SW
moved along by fast upper level flow. One such disturbance to exit
off to the east this evening...still bringing showers to SE zones
including GLS. Another progged to lift out of Mexico...seen 
upstream with colder cloud tops and showers starting to work up
into far S TX. Expect that next short wave to bring more
showers...and possibly a rumble of coastal TAF sites
including LBX and GLS...late tonight and Saturday morning.
Northern extend hard to pin down. As today and some recent events
have shown...can be a challenge for models to capture the details
including placement of the elevated convection. In any case
looking at VFR throughout the TAF period with rain/showers falling
from a 10000 foot base. Reilly

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019/ 

Isentropic lift over the coastal waters and coastal areas is
evident in the cloud fields and on radar with elevated
thunderstorms/showers/rain. Northerly winds have relaxed a good
deal already today. Temperatures though only reached the lower 60s
to upper 50s so a little on the cool side. Isolated thunderstorm
developed and moved quickly along and south of the Highway 59
corridor then veered eastward toward Devers.

Overnight tonight expect the impressive shortwave over Mexico to
track northeastward bringing a good shot of lift to the area as
well as help focus some precip development along the strengthening
frontal boundary near 800-750mb. Elevated CAPE per the soundings
has a skinny CAPE profile with MUCAPE of 30-150/kg above roughly
750mb. Have increased rain chances for much of the area tonight
with the expectation that even with high bases will see some light
rain/showers and even a few thunderstorms throughout the night
with the incoming shortwave. 

Another shortwave comes through Saturday late afternoon/evening
though probably starting out further south and traveling more 
eastward probably helping to keep the precip focused over the Gulf
and less so over the coastal areas. 

The big surface ridge over the state will very slowly slide
eastward Sunday through Monday with pleasant weather and low rain
chances over the Gulf/near the coast. Left front quad of the upper
jet arcs in Tuesday and could help increase rain chances in the
south and southwest areas with low level easterly flow. In
addition this easterly flow starts the warm up and briefly
increases low level moisture. Buckle in the upper flow comes
through and upper ridging takes hold Wednesday through Friday so
warmer afternoons with more sunshine. Saturday the moist flow is
firmly in place with WAA and probably the start of streamer

Winds and seas will remain elevated through Saturday morning. There 
is a network outage at the National Data Buoy Center, so we have 
not received any recent data from either buoys 19 or 35.  As a 
result, I am having to rely solely on model guidance for this 
afternoon's coastal waters forecast.  I have extended the SCEC for 
nearshore waters and the SCA for offshore waters through Noon 
tomorrow as North winds will remain elevated at 15-25 knots. The 
elevated winds and 4 to 9 foot seas should finally begin to decrease 
by tomorrow afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms 
will also likely continue over the Gulf waters through tomorrow 

Winds and seas should fall below SCEC levels by late Sunday, and 
wind directions will gradually veer around from the Northeast to 
East by mid-week.  



College Station (CLL)      40  59  41  61  42 /  10  10  10   0   0 
Houston (IAH)              47  61  45  63  45 /  20  10  10   0   0 
Galveston (GLS)            53  56  50  61  54 /  50  30  10  10   0 


TX...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for the 
     following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and 
     Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Saturday afternoon 
     for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to 
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from 
     High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Matagorda Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for the following 
     zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX 
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX 
     from 20 to 60 NM.