National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDHGX Received: 2019-03-15 20:32 UTC


450 
FXUS64 KHGX 152032
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
332 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Isentropic lift over the coastal waters and coastal areas is
evident in the cloud fields and on radar with elevated
thunderstorms/showers/rain. Northerly winds have relaxed a good
deal already today. Temperatures though only reached the lower 60s
to upper 50s so a little on the cool side. Isolated thunderstorm
developed and moved quickly along and south of the Highway 59
corridor then veered eastward toward Devers.

Overnight tonight expect the impressive shortwave over Mexico to
track northeastward bringing a good shot of lift to the area as
well as help focus some precip development along the strengthening
frontal boundary near 800-750mb. Elevated CAPE per the soundings
has a skinny CAPE profile with MUCAPE of 30-150/kg above roughly
750mb. Have increased rain chances for much of the area tonight
with the expectation that even with high bases will see some light
rain/showers and even a few thunderstorms throughout the night
with the incoming shortwave. 

Another shortwave comes through Saturday late afternoon/evening
though probably starting out further south and traveling more 
eastward probably helping to keep the precip focused over the Gulf
and less so over the coastal areas. 

The big surface ridge over the state will very slowly slide
eastward Sunday through Monday with pleasant weather and low rain
chances over the Gulf/near the coast. Left front quad of the upper
jet arcs in Tuesday and could help increase rain chances in the
south and southwest areas with low level easterly flow. In
addition this easterly flow starts the warm up and briefly
increases low level moisture. Buckle in the upper flow comes
through and upper ridging takes hold Wednesday through Friday so
warmer afternoons with more sunshine. Saturday the moist flow is
firmly in place with WAA and probably the start of streamer
showers.
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&&

.MARINE... 
Winds and seas will remain elevated through Saturday morning. There 
is a network outage at the National Data Buoy Center, so we have 
not received any recent data from either buoys 19 or 35.  As a 
result, I am having to rely solely on model guidance for this 
afternoon's coastal waters forecast.  I have extended the SCEC for 
nearshore waters and the SCA for offshore waters through Noon 
tomorrow as North winds will remain elevated at 15-25 knots. The 
elevated winds and 4 to 9 foot seas should finally begin to decrease 
by tomorrow afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms 
will also likely continue over the Gulf waters through tomorrow 
afternoon.

Winds and seas should fall below SCEC levels by late Sunday, and 
wind directions will gradually veer around from the Northeast to 
East by mid-week.  

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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      40  58  41  61  42 /  20   0  10   0   0 
Houston (IAH)              46  59  45  63  45 /  30  10  10   0   0 
Galveston (GLS)            51  57  50  61  54 /  40  30  10  10   0 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for the 
     following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and 
     Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Saturday afternoon 
     for the following zones: Matagorda Bay.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 4 PM CDT this 
     afternoon for the following zones: Galveston Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for the 
     following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda 
     Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island 
     to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Saturday afternoon 
     for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to 
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from 
     High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for the following 
     zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX 
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX 
     from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...45
Aviation/Marine...44