National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDHGX Received: 2019-03-15 15:25 UTC


646 
FXUS64 KHGX 151525
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1025 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019

.UPDATE...
Thunderstorms just off the coast early this morning have
dissipated/moved east. Further offshore 50+ miles band of MUCAPE
supporting the potential for more shower and thunderstorms
throughout the remainder of the morning and afternoon. As the
impressive little shortwave over Mexico tracks towards the region
expect to see the coastal waters blossom with showers and
thunderstorms and then as greatest band of lift arrives after 4 pm
probably some showers and wouldn't even rule out a thunderstorms
along and south of the Highway 59 corridor. Narrow CAPE profile
for these elevated storms this afternoon/night. Fast moving too
which should limit any accumulations. Temperatures this morning
were running a little cool so made some minor tweaks to the
forecast high temperatures today mainly to lower highs a degree or
two in the north and nudge them up a degree or two in the
southwest. 

Gusty NNE winds will continue through early afternoon but the
overall sustained winds should be dropping off so will let the
wind advisory for the coast expire at 11.  

Rip currents ramping back up and with Galveston Beach Patrol
observations have issued a Beach Hazards for strong rip currents. 

45/44

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
Reinforcing front has pushed well into the Gulf. Winds along the 
immediate coast and offshore have increased with gusts between 
30-35kt. With that in mind, wind advisory at the coast was a good 
call and will keep it intact thru the morning hours. A band of 
showers has developed along the coast and offshore in association 
with isentropic lift over the the boundary. With subtle impulses 
riding along in the sw flow aloft and favorable jet positioning to
somewhat enhance lift, chances of precip should persist across 
the southern 1/4 of the CWA and offshore thru Sat. In regards to 
temperatures the next few days, we generally added weight to the 
cooler solutions considering cloudiness in place which should
limit much of a warm up.

Upper level pattern eventually transitions into a drier nw flow
aloft as slight ridging develops early/mid next week. At the 
surface, pleasant ene winds should mostly persist with high 
pressure situated over the eastern US and lower pressure over the 
Yucatan. This will lead to some nice springtime wx with low rh's, 
cool overnight lows (40s) and warmer daytime highs (70s). And best
of all, we'll see the sun.

Look for rain chances to gradually increase next weekend as the 
Gulf opens back up in advance of the next western trof.  47

MARINE... 
WInds/seas are responding to the strong CAA developing over the area 
this morning. Small Craft Advisories are in place for the marine CWA 
until late this morning (over bays) and this afternoon (over coastal 
waters). The SCA may need to be extended until the early evening for 
the offshore waters. Otherwise, scattered showers have formed across 
the Gulf waters this morning and this trend will likely continue the 
next couple of days...along with a decreasing offshore flow (as high 
pressure builds/settles into the region). These generally light/mod- 
erate NE flow should persist through the weekend...before veering to 
the E around the start of next week. 41

AVIATION...
Not too many issues expected with the 12Z TAF package. A BKN/OVC VFR 
deck should prevail for most of the sites...along with a gusty north 
wind. However, along the coast, scattered showers (these next couple 
of days) will likely necessitate the mention of either VCSH or TEMPO 
for precipitation. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      59  40  59  42  64 /  10  10  10  10   0 
Houston (IAH)              61  46  58  45  65 /  10  10  10  20  10 
Galveston (GLS)            60  49  57  51  63 /  50  60  30  20  20 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for the 
     following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and 
     Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

     Wind Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for the following 
     zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and Bolivar 
     Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for the 
     following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 4 PM CDT this 
     afternoon for the following zones: Galveston Bay...
     Matagorda Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for the 
     following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda 
     Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island 
     to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to 
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from 
     High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...45