National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDHGX Received: 2019-03-15 02:40 UTC


484 
FXUS64 KHGX 150240
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
940 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019

.DISCUSSION...
At 01z, a reinforcing cold front was just off the coast with a
1036 mb high over the Rockies ridging into Texas. The gradient
should tighten overnight and am expecting sustained winds to
increase. Will issue a Wind Advisory for the barrier islands
overnight into early Friday. Despite very dry air at the surface,
weak isentropic upglide, favorable jet dynamics and strong 
frontogenesis in the 850-700 mb layer will likely yield some light
rain along the coast by morning and this area of precip will 
expand slightly inland during the day. Not sure how far inland 
precip will go but the Canadian, NAM12 and NMM are more aggressive
with rain on Friday. Bumped PoPs up slightly and increased cloud 
cover a bit. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019/ 

AVIATION...
VFR conditions anticipated through the TAF period across all
terminals tonight. An overcast ceiling at 7000-8000ft has spread
across the TAF sites along and south of I-10. Winds are out of the
N/NW around 10-15 kts with gusts closer to 20-25 kts. Will see the
winds relax slightly in the early morning hours before increasing
once again shortly after sunrise, with winds more out of the N 
and gusts around 20-25 kts once more. Better moisture in the mid 
levels will help this overcast deck to spread further inland by 
Friday morning across all terminals, but VFR conditions will still
remain.

Hathaway 

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...

After a front brought a thin line of showers and storms to
Southeast Texas last night to early this morning, we are set for a
relatively quiet week of weather ahead. The passed front will
stall nearby over the Gulf, which will keep a low chance of
showers in place near the coast through the weekend, but 
otherwise things look pretty dry. A wind advisory may be needed
on the barrier islands overnight as gusty northerly winds bring in
cooler, and much drier air to the area. This will spur a cooling
trend into Saturday, with slow warming expected deep into next
week. Though we may finish this week a bit chilly, all in all the
next several days will be fairly typical for mid-March in
Southeast Texas.

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Satellite imagery reveals the only real indications of the cold
front that's passed through the area, with some convective clouds
out over the Gulf, and some trailing low stratus all the way back
to coastal areas of Southeast Texas. Any rain has moved out just
beyond the range of our radar, and surface obs show that while
temperatures are still in the 60s and 70s this afternoon, falling
dewpoints indicate the cooling we are about to see tonight on
gusty northerly winds. Indeed, numerous obs are triggering 
awareness flags for fire weather this afternoon - but for more 
details, read the Fire Weather section below. Suffice to say, 
these north winds are ushering in a much drier airmass.

While those winds may relax just a bit this evening as the sun
goes down, look for the pressure gradient to tighten as a 1035 mb
high drops south along the edge of the Front Range towards the
Texas Panhandle. As this occurs tonight, look for winds to crank
back up again towards midnight. Small craft advisories have been
issued (see Marine section below), and though marginal, a wind
advisory may be needed for barrier islands tonight. The key spots
to watch will be those with a favorable fetch down Matagorda and
Galveston Bays. But, given that Galveston is only at 12 knots now,
will hold off an any issuances here for the evening shift to see
how things tighten up this evening.

SHORT TERM [Friday Through Sunday Night]...

With the front looking to stall not quite far enough offshore for
my tastes, we'll be looking warily at shortwave troughs embedded
in southwest flow aloft through the weekend. Most, if not all
precip, looks likely to happen offshore, but there's at least a
low chance that we see enough vertical motion at the coast that we
squeeze out a few light showers or sprinkles. Friday and Saturday
both look to have little midlevel vort maxes shoot through that
could do it, and so those days have higher PoPs than Sunday. By
then, activity looks to shift far enough south that we'd only have
an outside shot at getting coastal rain.

More applicable to the area as a whole will be a cooling trend for
the next couple of days. There's enough warm air holding tight
that today has been able to get pretty toasty for much of the
area, but cooler temps at Crockett, Bryan, and even at College
Station and Brenham show that the colder airmass is incoming.
Drier air also has dewpoints down into the 30s and 40s, which will
allow for chilly overnight lows with nighttime cooling. Even if
there's not a lot of rain generated as the weekend shortwaves move
through, I am forecasting cloudier skies, especially Saturday. So,
between cold advection and lack on insolation, parts of the area
may struggle to break much past 50 degrees that day.

With the sun expected to come out Sunday, highs in the 60s should
be more plentiful, but that still keeps us a shade below seasonal
averages at our warmest this weekend. Still, while chillier than
typical, we should stay safely above freezing temperatures, with
the far north only briefly dipping into the upper 30s at its
coldest.

LONG TERM [Monday Through Thursday]...

As the next big upper low pushes ashore at the Pacific Coast next
week, we'll see a compensating stacked ridge build over the 
Rockies, and slide towards the Great Plains over the long term. 
This is likely to keep the weather dry, and set up a gradual 
warming trend for our area deep into next week. By late next week,
temperatures should be near or above a bit above seasonable
averages. Enjoy Spring while it's here - before you know it, 
we'll be in the blast furnace.

The midlevel ridge axis should be right overhead Thursday night,
so look for a change in the pattern not much beyond the end of
this forecast period. But...it is beyond the forecast period for
now, so won't get into speculation at this time.

MARINE...

Winds have relaxed and seas are falling but as winds begin to 
increase this evening will see SCA conditions develop with 20-25kt 
gusting 25-35kts especially after midnight through late morning 
Friday. Gradient relaxes somewhat Friday afternoon but a persistent 
NE flow pattern takes hold and winds will likely fluctuate in the 13 
to 20 knot range over the Gulf through Sunday morning.  Stronger rip 
current should continue through the afternoon today with some 
lessening tonight and Saturday. Easterly flow finally comes back 
Wednesday and may see some potential for reduced visibility with the 
moisture return Thursday. 
45

FIRE WEATHER...

Dry across the area this afternoon with some gusty winds and 
mostly sunny skies across the north. RH values have ridden the 
roller coaster today from 100 percent this morning (thanks 
fog/rain/low clouds) to 25 to 40 percent this afternoon. Rainfall 
across the area was relatively light except for the areas from 
around Brenham to to Livingston northward where amounts of 0.25-2"
were more common. All that said...overnight expecting northerly 
flow to continue to usher in lower dewpoints and getting gusty 
tomorrow with the cold advection/developing cloud cover which will
severely hamper the the temperature rises, limiting the highs on 
Friday to the 58-63 degree range (down from todays 70s) which in 
turn will help to limit the fall of the RH in to only 30-40 
percent. So not getting into red flag criteria but certainly 
making the fuels across the area a bit drier. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      44  60  41  58  42 /   0   0   0  10  20 
Houston (IAH)              49  62  46  58  45 /   0  20   0  10  20 
Galveston (GLS)            54  62  51  57  50 /  10  50  10  30  20 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 11 AM CDT Friday for the following 
     zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and Bolivar 
     Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Friday afternoon for 
     the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Friday for the following 
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship 
     Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to 
     Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda 
     Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island 
     to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...43