National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDHGX Received: 2019-02-12 05:38 UTC

FXUS64 KHGX 120538

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1138 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019

.AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...

TAFs have been on track for the most part but ceilings/visibility
have not dropped quite as much as expected. This is mainly due to
more convective activity developing with even a few rumbles of 
thunder for KHOU and KLBX. There has been a downward trend in 
convective intensities but still some decent coverage in shower 
activity. Look for showers to continue through about 10-12Z 
Tuesday as the cold front pushes through the area. Drier air lags 
the actual front so it may take an hour or two longer for ceilings
to improve. That said, look for IFR/MVFR ceilings to become VFR 
after 12-13Z Tuesday. The main aviation issue after that will be 
gusty NNW winds during the day which weaken as high pressure 
builds over Texas by 00Z Wednesday.



.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 1111 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019/...

With earlier update put up dense fog advisory for just the islands
including Galveston...based on webcams showing dense fog there.
This added to the one issued for marine areas earlier. Conditions
certainly favorable for sea fog with air mass characterized by
surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s and water temperatures
only in the mid to upper 50s. Wind direction not as favorable this
evening compared to last and this has led to more patchiness to
the fog and less penetration inland. Bands of showers...and a few
thunderstorms...have occurred this evening and should see this
continue overnight...ending from NW to SE as cold front pushes
across the area. The front itself is still well north and
northwest...extedning from ERN OK westward toward along the Red
River. This front is progged to shift fairly quickly SEWD and
should push offshore around daybreak Tuesday.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019/ 

AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

Surface analysis shows one stalled boundary north of the KCLL to 
KLFK area which has allowed for a warm sector to develop with 
surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. This has allowed 
for passing showers to move across SE Texas and affect several 
terminals. Showers should be short lived but there could be some 
brief drops in visibility. Ceilings are expected to drop to 
IFR/MVFR levels for KIAH south to the coast. Sea fog should affect
KGLS again but not be much of an issue for KHOU since winds are 
more S to SW. Passing showers with lower ceilings/visibility is 
expected until 07Z to 12Z when the frontal boundary finally pushes
through the area. The front is now located in the Plains with a 
surface low over the Texas Panhandle moving into Oklahoma. HRRR 
and other short range guidance have a good handle on this 
situation. This means ceilings/visibility will improve quickly 
from 09Z to 12Z Tuesday with VFR during the day Tuesday. Winds 
will increase from the NNW during the day with gusts near 20 to 25
knots. High pressure builds over Texas allowing winds to decrease
late afternoon tomorrow.




College Station (CLL)  66  47  61  37  65 /   0   0   0  10  10 
Houston (IAH)          73  53  63  40  66 /   0   0   0   0  10 
Galveston (GLS)        67  58  63  50  62 /  10   0   0  10  10 



TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for the following 
     zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and Bolivar 
     Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for the following 
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship 
     Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to 
     Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.