National Weather Service Raw Text Product

914 
FXUS64 KHGX 120511
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1111 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019

.UPDATE...
With earlier update put up dense fog advisory for just the islands
including Galveston...based on webcams showing dense fog there.
This added to the one issued for marine areas earlier. Conditions
certainly favorable for sea fog with air mass characterized by
surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s and water temperatures
only in the mid to upper 50s. Wind direction not as favorable this
evening compared to last and this has led to more patchiness to
the fog and less penetration inland. Bands of showers...and a few
thunderstorms...have occurred this evening and should see this
continue overnight...ending from NW to SE as cold front pushes
across the area. The front itself is still well north and
northwest...extedning from ERN OK westward toward along the Red
River. This front is progged to shift fairly quickly SEWD and
should push offshore around daybreak Tuesday.

Reilly

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019/ 

AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

Surface analysis shows one stalled boundary north of the KCLL to 
KLFK area which has allowed for a warm sector to develop with 
surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. This has allowed 
for passing showers to move across SE Texas and affect several 
terminals. Showers should be short lived but there could be some 
brief drops in visibility. Ceilings are expected to drop to 
IFR/MVFR levels for KIAH south to the coast. Sea fog should affect
KGLS again but not be much of an issue for KHOU since winds are 
more S to SW. Passing showers with lower ceilings/visibility is 
expected until 07Z to 12Z when the frontal boundary finally pushes
through the area. The front is now located in the Plains with a 
surface low over the Texas Panhandle moving into Oklahoma. HRRR 
and other short range guidance have a good handle on this 
situation. This means ceilings/visibility will improve quickly 
from 09Z to 12Z Tuesday with VFR during the day Tuesday. Winds 
will increase from the NNW during the day with gusts near 20 to 25
knots. High pressure builds over Texas allowing winds to decrease
late afternoon tomorrow.

Overpeck

PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 208 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019/...

DISCUSSION...
There will continue to be rain chances in the forecast for the rest
of the day and overnight ahead of a cold front moves across the area
before sunrise. Cannot rule out more fog development (especially near
the coast/Bays/Gulf waters, some of which could become dense) before
the front moves on through. A couple of cool nights and mild days can
be expected behind the front as high pressure builds into the area.
As the high moves off to the east on Wednesday, look for an increase
in moisture levels and humidities to begin once again as winds come
back around to the southeast and south. Temperatures warm up once 
again on Thursday as the onshore winds strengthen in response to 
pressure falls in the TX/OK panhandle area, and currently anticipate
little to no rain development in advance/associated with the next
cold front scheduled to move through Southeast Texas on Friday. 
Temperatures cool back down over the weekend as high pressure ridges
into the area from the north and northwest. Coastal trough development
looks possible at the end of the weekend and on into early next week
which would help to bring increasing clouds and rain chances as 
temperatures remain on the cool/cold side.  42

MARINE...

Onshore flow will prevail this afternoon and tonight. Sea fog is 
expected to re-develop this evening through early morning Tuesday 
particularly across the bays and nearshore Gulf waters. Fog will 
decrease visibilites to below 1 nautical mile, thus, the marine 
dense fog advisory will likely be extended through early Tuesday 
morning for the nearshore waters as well as expanded to include the 
bays. A cold front will push into the coastline by early Tuesday 
morning with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms 
along/ahead of it. Fog is expected to dissipate after the cold front 
moves across. Moderate to strong winds and elevated seas expected in 
the wake of the frontal passage, therefore, SCEC and SCA flags will 
likely be in effect for the Gulf waters Tuesday morning through 
Tuesday afternoon/evening. Onshore flow is forecast to return 
Wednesday afternoon/evening. Model guidance shows another cold front 
moving into the coastal waters Friday and could result in another 
surge of winds along with elevated seas. 24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      47  61  37  65  52 /  30   0   0   0  10 
Houston (IAH)              53  63  40  66  54 /  60   0   0   0   0 
Galveston (GLS)            58  63  50  62  58 /  60  10   0   0  10 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for the following 
     zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and Bolivar 
     Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for the following 
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship 
     Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to 
     Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

&&

$$