National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDHGX Received: 2019-02-11 18:07 UTC

FXUS64 KHGX 111807

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1207 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019


Conditions have improved this morning across the forecast area 
with most TAF sites now reporting VFR visibilities and VFR to 
MVFR ceilings, except KCLL where it continues IFR. Expect bands 
of showers to continue to move across the local area from time to 
time throughout the day. Patchy to dense fog is expected to 
re-develop this evening resulting in IFR to LIFR conditions for 
most of the TAF sites, but will be most dense over the Gulf waters
and coastal regions. A stronger band of showers with possible 
thunderstorms is forecast to move across the CWA tonight through 
early Tuesday morning. In the wake of the front, NNW winds of 
10-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts are expected Tuesday morning.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST Mon Feb 11 2019/ 

Extended the Dense Fog Advisory until Noon for some of our far west
and northwest counties and along the barrier islands where some 
visibilities remain at or below 1/4 mile. Boundary remains in/around
the inland advisory area where temperatures are still in the mid 50s.
Elsewhere, seeing 10 AM temperatures ranging from the low to mid 60s
north to around 70 in the Houston area. Rain chances will remain in
the forecast for the rest of the morning and on through the afternoon

Cold front is still on schedule to move through the area tonight,
and it will bring an end to our area's rain fog.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CST Mon Feb 11 2019/ 

Weak shortwave energy is moving across the region producing
iso/sct packets of -ra and even a lone tstm across far north 
Houston Co. Elsewhere, fog is the primary issue this morning & 
will monitor trends in case the dense fog advsy might need to be 
expanded a bit further inland in the next couple hours. 

The warm front is still situated from roughly Palacios to 
Crockett early this morning. It should make some northward 
progress today but slow enough whereas there will be some 5-10 
degree differences in highs today across parts of the area. 
Combination of weak impulses aloft and waa will continue to 
produce sct shra throughout the day. Sea fog will eventually
retreat from the bays, but likely move right back in during the
late afternoon and evening hours. 

Upper trough will swing thru the Plains today and swing a surface 
pre-frontal trough thru later this evening followed by the front 
itself late tonight. Well probably see a thin bkn band of shra and
embedded tsra develop along the prefrontal trough (and possibly 
another along the front if there's enough moisture leftover to 
work with). Overall instability isn't impressive and wouldn't 
expect much of a threat of svr tstms. May see a stronger cell or 
two in the ne parts, from say Conroe-Crockett, which are a bit 
closer to the rrq of the upper jet exiting ne Tx.

Tue & Wed look to be fairly nice with some periods of sunshine in
between plumes of Pacific cirrus streaming overhead. Surface high
pressure moves east on Wed. The next front should push through on
Friday. This frontal passage should be mostly dry as it looks to
be moisture starved and capped. The weekend should be mainly dry 
as well...just a gradual transition period until the next system 
arrives Monday-ish. 47 

Will be keeping the Marine Dense Fog Advisory in place over the bays 
and nearshore waters until just after mid morning, but could be ext- 
ended until noon (per some of the short-range models). Otherwise not 
too many changes with the overall forecast of a mostly light onshore 
flow today/tonight along with return of sea fog late this afternoon/ 
early this evening. The cold front is still on track to move off the 
coast early Tue morning with scattered showers and isolated thunder- 
storms along/ahead of it. Brief SCEC/SCA flags will be possible late 
Tue morning through the afternoon. High pressure will be building in 
to the region quickly Tue night with winds decreasing. East winds by 
Weds are then progged to shift to the SE Weds night as the next cold 
front/storm system begins to move down off the Northern Plains. This 
next front is forecast to move into the Gulf waters late Fri or so. 

Another messy start to the day as bands of weak showers contend with 
the patchy dense fog already in place. These LIFR CIGS/VIS should be 
improving by mid morning (expect along the coast) as the slightly el-
evated winds (20-30kts) just above the surface start to mix down. We 
should continue to see these bands of showers move across throughout 
the day given the persistent SW fetch aloft with MVFR CIGS remaining 
in place. This next cold front is progged to move across the CWA at/ 
just after midnight tonight, with showers and isolated thunderstorms 
likely accompanying it. However, ahead of the front, patchy fog will 
be possible as VIS/CIGS fall once again. Conditions should be impro- 
ving from the north to south by mid Tues morning. 41


College Station (CLL)      66  49  62  37  65 /  50  30   0   0   0 
Houston (IAH)              73  54  65  40  66 /  50  60   0   0   0 
Galveston (GLS)            67  56  64  50  62 /  30  60   0   0   0 


TX...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for the following zones: 
     Austin...Brazoria Islands...Brazos...Burleson...Colorado...
     Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Grimes...Madison...
     Matagorda Islands...Waller...Washington.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for the following zones: 
     Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the following 
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship 
     Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to 
     Freeport TX out 20 NM.