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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDHGX Received: 2019-02-11 16:07 UTC
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386 FXUS64 KHGX 111607 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1007 AM CST Mon Feb 11 2019 .DISCUSSION... Extended the Dense Fog Advisory until Noon for some of our far west and northwest counties and along the barrier islands where some visibilities remain at or below 1/4 mile. Boundary remains in/around the inland advisory area where temperatures are still in the mid 50s. Elsewhere, seeing 10 AM temperatures ranging from the low to mid 60s north to around 70 in the Houston area. Rain chances will remain in the forecast for the rest of the morning and on through the afternoon hours. Cold front is still on schedule to move through the area tonight, and it will bring an end to our area's rain fog. 42 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CST Mon Feb 11 2019/ DISCUSSION... Weak shortwave energy is moving across the region producing iso/sct packets of -ra and even a lone tstm across far north Houston Co. Elsewhere, fog is the primary issue this morning & will monitor trends in case the dense fog advsy might need to be expanded a bit further inland in the next couple hours. The warm front is still situated from roughly Palacios to Crockett early this morning. It should make some northward progress today but slow enough whereas there will be some 5-10 degree differences in highs today across parts of the area. Combination of weak impulses aloft and waa will continue to produce sct shra throughout the day. Sea fog will eventually retreat from the bays, but likely move right back in during the late afternoon and evening hours. Upper trough will swing thru the Plains today and swing a surface pre-frontal trough thru later this evening followed by the front itself late tonight. Well probably see a thin bkn band of shra and embedded tsra develop along the prefrontal trough (and possibly another along the front if there's enough moisture leftover to work with). Overall instability isn't impressive and wouldn't expect much of a threat of svr tstms. May see a stronger cell or two in the ne parts, from say Conroe-Crockett, which are a bit closer to the rrq of the upper jet exiting ne Tx. Tue & Wed look to be fairly nice with some periods of sunshine in between plumes of Pacific cirrus streaming overhead. Surface high pressure moves east on Wed. The next front should push through on Friday. This frontal passage should be mostly dry as it looks to be moisture starved and capped. The weekend should be mainly dry as well...just a gradual transition period until the next system arrives Monday-ish. 47 MARINE... Will be keeping the Marine Dense Fog Advisory in place over the bays and nearshore waters until just after mid morning, but could be ext- ended until noon (per some of the short-range models). Otherwise not too many changes with the overall forecast of a mostly light onshore flow today/tonight along with return of sea fog late this afternoon/ early this evening. The cold front is still on track to move off the coast early Tue morning with scattered showers and isolated thunder- storms along/ahead of it. Brief SCEC/SCA flags will be possible late Tue morning through the afternoon. High pressure will be building in to the region quickly Tue night with winds decreasing. East winds by Weds are then progged to shift to the SE Weds night as the next cold front/storm system begins to move down off the Northern Plains. This next front is forecast to move into the Gulf waters late Fri or so. 41 AVIATION... Another messy start to the day as bands of weak showers contend with the patchy dense fog already in place. These LIFR CIGS/VIS should be improving by mid morning (expect along the coast) as the slightly el- evated winds (20-30kts) just above the surface start to mix down. We should continue to see these bands of showers move across throughout the day given the persistent SW fetch aloft with MVFR CIGS remaining in place. This next cold front is progged to move across the CWA at/ just after midnight tonight, with showers and isolated thunderstorms likely accompanying it. However, ahead of the front, patchy fog will be possible as VIS/CIGS fall once again. Conditions should be impro- ving from the north to south by mid Tues morning. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 66 49 62 37 65 / 50 30 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 73 54 65 40 66 / 50 60 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 67 56 64 50 62 / 30 60 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for the following zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...Brazos...Burleson...Colorado... Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Grimes...Madison... Matagorda Islands...Waller...Washington. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay. && $$