National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDHGX Received: 2019-01-12 16:05 UTC


250 
FXUS64 KHGX 121605
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1005 AM CST Sat Jan 12 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Cold front is working its way across our northern counties this morning.
Clouds will continue working their way through the area, but it is
possible we could see some cloud cover move into the northern parts
of the area this afternoon. Temperatures are expected to warm up only
a couple degrees with highs ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s
north and in the mid to maybe upper 60s closer to the coast.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CST Sat Jan 12 2019/ 

UPDATE...
Showers nearly out of Chambers county at 630 am. Patchy fog with
visibilities of 1 to 3 miles has expanded east in the wake of the
prefrontal trough. Have made some changes to the short term to
line up with these changes. May get a few isolated spots with
visibility less than 1 mile for another hour. 

Cold front has moved through Waco/Mexia/Temple and should still be
on track for College Station 9-10 am. 
45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST Sat Jan 12 2019/ 

DISCUSSION [12Z TAF ISSUANCE]...

Rain activity has decreased inland. A line of strong showers
will continue to move across the Gulf waters during the next two 
hours of so. As a cold front continues to move east, winds will
increase and shift W to NW today. VFR vis/cigs expected after 
around 16Z as drier air moves across the local area. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CST Sat Jan 12 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
Trailing line of showers/isolated thunderstorms moving through the
southeastern areas early this morning. Rains east of a line from
Livingston to Pasadena to Freeport moving east at around 30 mph.
Gusty winds still possible and could gust up near 30 mph with the
storms near the coast. 

Nose of the mid level jet streak from Midland to Kerrville to Fort
Polk pushing east and bring drying and the front with it.
Unfortunately some patchy fog will be possible early this morning in
the western areas prior to the arrival of the cold front. The cold
front was in Dallas at 4 am and should be sweeping southeastward
quickly today likely through the College Station area around 10 am
and Houston close to noon. Clouds over the area should start
eroding from the west this morning but as the upper low lifts 
east northeast expect wrap around clouds to push down in the
northern areas keeping them in varying partly to mostly cloudy
conditions. Temperatures will be tricky today with CAA coming in
this afternoon but with sunshine for the south and less sunshine
across the north. Have temperatures ranging from the upper 50s
across the north this afternoon to the upper 60s in the southwest.
This will probably need tweaking later this morning and the
gradient could be even greater. 

Cooler weather on tap for a few days with high building down
across the region. Next upper trough spinning up a coastal
trough/low along the Lower Texas coast early Tuesday enhancing the
cool moist flow off the Gulf for SETX. Rain chances increasing
throughout the day Tuesday/Tuesday night for the southern half of
the area. (Could be a little slower on timing if the ECMWF is
correct) The coastal trough weakens Wednesday and another cold 
front moves toward the area early Thursday. The front moves
through either Friday or Saturday and leading toward the slower
and stronger ECMWF solution in the latter period. Rain chances
increasing again ahead of the frontal passage. Also of note the 
ensemble spreads showing some very big differences for 
temperatures Friday afternoon through Saturday due to timing and 
strength of the cold airmass moving through the Plains. Have 
trended the temperatures down in favor over the colder ECMWF 
solution next Saturday and Saturday night. The airmass looks to 
have it's origin over Canada. 
45 

MARINE...

Gusty winds are being observed over the offshore waters with the 
passage of the rain bands and should continue during the next few 
hours. A cold front will push into the Gulf waters today. Small 
craft should exercise caution especially over the offshore waters 
due to N-NW winds up to 20 knots with higher gusts tonight through 
Sunday morning. A small craft advisory may be needed if winds 
surpass caution level criteria. Onshore winds are expected to return 
by mid week. 24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      60  38  51  38  51 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Houston (IAH)              66  40  55  41  53 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Galveston (GLS)            65  46  54  45  53 /   0   0   0   0  10 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 8 PM CST this evening 
     through Sunday morning for the following zones: Coastal 
     waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 
     NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 
     NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 
     20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 
     20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$