National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDHGX Received: 2019-01-12 10:31 UTC

FXUS64 KHGX 121031

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
431 AM CST Sat Jan 12 2019

Trailing line of showers/isolated thunderstorms moving through the
southeastern areas early this morning. Rains east of a line from
Livingston to Pasadena to Freeport moving east at around 30 mph.
Gusty winds still possible and could gust up near 30 mph with the
storms near the coast. 

Nose of the mid level jet streak from Midland to Kerrville to Fort
Polk pushing east and bring drying and the front with it.
Unfortunately some patchy fog will be possible early this morning in
the western areas prior to the arrival of the cold front. The cold
front was in Dallas at 4 am and should be sweeping southeastward
quickly today likely through the College Station area around 10 am
and Houston close to noon. Clouds over the area should start
eroding from the west this morning but as the upper low lifts 
east northeast expect wrap around clouds to push down in the
northern areas keeping them in varying partly to mostly cloudy
conditions. Temperatures will be tricky today with CAA coming in
this afternoon but with sunshine for the south and less sunshine
across the north. Have temperatures ranging from the upper 50s
across the north this afternoon to the upper 60s in the southwest.
This will probably need tweaking later this morning and the
gradient could be even greater. 

Cooler weather on tap for a few days with high building down
across the region. Next upper trough spinning up a coastal
trough/low along the Lower Texas coast early Tuesday enhancing the
cool moist flow off the Gulf for SETX. Rain chances increasing
throughout the day Tuesday/Tuesday night for the southern half of
the area. (Could be a little slower on timing if the ECMWF is
correct) The coastal trough weakens Wednesday and another cold 
front moves toward the area early Thursday. The front moves
through either Friday or Saturday and leading toward the slower
and stronger ECMWF solution in the latter period. Rain chances
increasing again ahead of the frontal passage. Also of note the 
ensemble spreads showing some very big differences for 
temperatures Friday afternoon through Saturday due to timing and 
strength of the cold airmass moving through the Plains. Have 
trended the temperatures down in favor over the colder ECMWF 
solution next Saturday and Saturday night. The airmass looks to 
have it's origin over Canada. 



Gusty winds are being observed over the offshore waters with the 
passage of the rain bands and should continue during the next few 
hours. A cold front will push into the Gulf waters today. Small 
craft should exercise caution especially over the offshore waters 
due to N-NW winds up to 20 knots with higher gusts tonight through 
Sunday morning. A small craft advisory may be needed if winds 
surpass caution level criteria. Onshore winds are expected to return 
by mid week. 24



College Station (CLL)      60  38  51  38  51 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Houston (IAH)              66  40  55  41  53 /  10   0   0   0   0 
Galveston (GLS)            65  46  54  45  53 /  20   0   0   0  10 


     morning for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to 
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from 
     High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.