National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDHGX Received: 2018-10-12 08:51 UTC


569 
FXUS64 KHGX 120851
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
351 AM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday Night)... 
Stepping outside this morning you can actually take a breath of 
fresh air instead of wearing it because it's so humid. Surface 
analysis has high pressure ridge axis stretching from the 
Mississippi River Valley into NE Texas. Upper air analysis shows a
more progressive pattern with Michael becoming extra-tropical off
the Mid-Atlantic Coast. There is a pretty strong jet stream 
across the central U.S. with a trough back over California. This 
pattern has helped pull Tropical Storm Sergio from the Pacific 
towards the Baja Peninsula. This system should track over Mexico 
and the Rockies into the Plain for the weekend. This should allow 
for falling pressures over west Texas and then track through north
Texas this weekend. The system should bring an increase in 
southerly winds and a return of Gulf moisture. Rain chances 
increase Saturday into Sunday but the remnants of Sergio will 
cause heavy rainfall north of the area. There is still a chance a 
line of showers and storms could move into the area should the 
convection become more organized based on WRF ARW/NMM. This is a 
low confidence scenario since most synoptic models are keeping 
higher rainfall amounts and convection farther north through north
Texas into Oklahoma.

Overpeck

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday and Sunday night
ahead of an approaching cold front that should push through the
area sometime late Sunday night/Monday morning. Much colder air
can be expected with this front, and temperatures will likely fall
throughout the day on Monday with breezy N winds. Although this
front is forecast to be fairly strong, it will also be rather 
shallow with the frontal inversion struggling to reach 850mb. 
Persistent SW flow on top of the inversion will keep plenty of 
warm, moist air over the shallow layer of cooler air for days in 
the wake of the front. So although temperatures will be much 
cooler, conditions will remain overcast with periods of light rain
through the rest of the forecast period. 

11

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the Mississippi River Valley should continue to 
move east allowing for east and then southeast winds to develop 
today into Saturday. Northeast to east winds are already around 15 
knots across the Upper Texas Coast but seas are down to 3 feet. The 
easterly winds may cause tide levels to remain around 1.5 feet above 
normal today so there could be some minor coastal flooding impacts 
at high tide. We will issue a coastal flood statement to highlight 
these impacts. Greater impacts of coastal flooding are expected late 
Saturday into Sunday. Southeast winds are expected to increase to 
around 15 to 20 knots Saturday afternoon and night. Caution flags 
may be needed, but these winds will also build seas and likely 
increase the threat for rip currents. Tide levels may push to 1.5 to 
2 feet above normal with high tides Saturday evening. This may be 
another coastal flood event and we will need to monitor tide levels 
over the weekend and issue advisory/warning as needed. Synoptic 
models are consistent with the front pushing off the coast late on 
Monday. Offshore winds should peak Monday night into Tuesday as a 
result. Northerly winds persist into the middle of next week.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      82  67  83  72  83 /  10  10  30  30  40 
Houston (IAH)              83  67  84  74  86 /  10  10  20  20  20 
Galveston (GLS)            80  75  83  79  83 /  10  10  10  10  20 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...11
Aviation/Marine...39