National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDHGX Received: 2018-04-26 11:26 UTC


464 
FXUS64 KHGX 261126
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
626 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.AVIATION...
Skies are gradually clearing from north to south early this
morning. Monitoring some fog north of UTS. All sites should 
be VFR today with N to NW winds 5-10 knots. Weaker winds 
tonight with some high clouds possible moving into the area 
from the west. VFR tomorrow with N to NW winds 5-10 knots.
42 
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...

Fair weather expected through at least the weekend - cooler today
than earlier in the week thanks to the recent frontal passage.
Each succeeding day looks to be a bit warmer, but temperatures
stay pretty close to seasonal averages. Chances for precipitation
return early next week, but considerable uncertainty in just how
much potential there is until late in the week, just beyond the
end of the current forecast period.

NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Obs show that winds have turned north/northwesterly across
Southeast Texas, and dewpoints have fallen below 60 degrees every
in the area but at Palacios (at 60.1 degrees, of course). It is
relatively safe to say that the front has passed. Some low clouds
linger in the immediate post-frontal zone, but the radar is pretty
clear - drizzle at the absolute most. The clearing line has
reached roughly to a Brenham-Conroe line, and behind that are the
fair skies that will dominate most of the time into the weekend.

Lows this morning look to fall below 50 degrees in the far north
as colder and drier air tries to work into the area, while most
bottom out in the 50s, and dewpoint obs show that we have that
floor established already. After that, despite the pretty sunny
skies, today will be noticeably cooler than most of the week so
far. That said, we're nearly to May, and sunny skies can warm
things pretty effectively. Have highs in the 70s across the area.

SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Biggest challenge into the weekend is likely to come with low
temperatures. A weak, reinforcing cold front looks to move into
the area late tonight or early tomorrow morning...but I'm
wondering if the front may bring enough brief clouds and/or keep 
up winds enough to ruin ideal radiational cooling and actually 
overcome any additional cold advection. My inner perfectionist 
may come to regret this, but keep lows a little higher in the 
coming couple of nights relative to this morning. The more 
pragmatic part has to remind the rest of me that the impacts of 
the upper 40s versus the lower 50s are not likely to be terribly 
significant.

Days in this period should be pretty pleasant. Keeping the lows up
a touch give me the confidence to introduce some 80 degree highs
tomorrow and make that area a little bit bigger each day until
most/all of Southeast Texas is maxing out in the lower 80s by 
Sunday. If it gets warm enough, we may see the semblances of a sea
breeze set up in the afternoons. It may be a little inconsistent 
at first, but as surface high pressure drifts off to our east, we 
should see onshore winds return by late Sunday afternoon or 
evening.

LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Thursday]...

In addition to the surface high moving off, the weekend's ridging
aloft should also be moving on for early next week. This will help
deepen the low level onshore flow, improving moisture return. It
will also set us up for a "string-of-pearl" chain of vort maxes to
cross the area early next week. Because of this, we'll see
increasing clouds and introduce some slight chance PoPs as early
as Monday. While I'm reasonably certain that we'll squeeze some 
showers and maybe even some storms out of this setup at some point
in the first half of the week, I have basically zero confidence 
in timing out such a fragile setup this far out. The result is a
bunch of slight chance and low end chance PoPs splattered
throughout the entire first half of the week. In other words...the
most recent XKCD comic (Number 1985, for posterity) is 
disturbingly appropriate to my situation tonight and I'll be
keeping my eye out for security for the rest of my shift...

Another more significant chance of rain looks to be on tap just
beyond the end of this forecast period. Guidance is very gung ho
on rain, and if this period were a part of the official forecast,
I'd undercut it significantly on PoPs. This is partly due to
range, and partly due to the underperformance of the last couple
of fronts. Let's be honest, here - the nascent beginning of a
seabreeze pattern, some more spacing between fronts, more
underwhelming fronts, and the fact that it's late April...We're 
not there yet, and there's still some springtime to be had in the 
coming weeks, but it's time to brace yourselves, as summer is 
coming.

MARINE...

Elevated offshore winds in the wake of a cold front 
are expected to decrease today (caution flags are in 
effect early this morning). A lighter offshore flow 
can be expected tonight and Friday. With low seas 
over the weekend, light northeast winds become 
southeast as high pressure moves off to the east. 
Strengthening onshore winds and building seas can 
be expected for much of next week. Caution flags 
are likely (maybe beginning as early as Monday or
Monday night), and advisories might be needed. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      75  54  80  54  81 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Houston (IAH)              77  57  81  56  81 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Galveston (GLS)            73  64  77  64  76 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 AM CDT this morning 
     for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to 
     the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from 
     High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...
     Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship 
     Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to 
     Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$